Upset Brief · NM-02 · Greg Cunningham (R) vs. Gabe Vasquez (D), incumbent

Cunningham can win. The math closes using 34 percent of what history allows.

29%
odds today
51%
odds with the plan
5,655
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 15 (Socorro County)
    Starting line Vasquez +11. 28.5% split their ticket.
    +108
  2. 02
    Precinct 52 (Eddy County)
    Starting line Cunningham +60. 3.0% split their ticket. About 454 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +95
  3. 03
    Precinct 34 (Eddy County)
    Starting line Cunningham +59. 5.7% split their ticket. About 274 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +84
  4. 04
    Precinct 36 (Eddy County)
    Starting line Cunningham +72. 5.7% split their ticket. About 137 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +77
  5. 05
    Precinct 50 (Eddy County)
    Starting line Cunningham +59. 7.2% split their ticket. About 176 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +75
  6. 06
    Precinct 5 (Cibola County)
    Starting line Vasquez +38. 7.3% split their ticket.
    +53

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 15,296 leaning Vasquez today.
    +5,155
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 17,542 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Cunningham's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +700
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Cunningham's way.
    +83
What has to be true
  1. Cunningham wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Vasquez.
  2. In Precinct 52 (Eddy County) and Precinct 34 (Eddy County), 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 34 percent of what recent New Mexico results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    651 precincts, R² 0.958, 120 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -16,058 to 16,887 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Cunningham $794,187 cash on hand; Vasquez $2,378,703.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    9,393 households, 28,180 dials, about 1,477 live conversations: an estimated $4,425 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,425 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All New Mexico races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official New Mexico Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.