New Mexico · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

How Greg Cunningham wins.

Vasquez starts 2.9 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Cunningham needs 5,655 net votes, and the math closes using 34 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 15 (Socorro County), Precinct 52 (Eddy County) and Precinct 34 (Eddy County).

5,655

net votes between Cunningham and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.

2.9 pts

Vasquez lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All New Mexico races ranked ›

Cunningham can win. The math closes using 34 percent of what history allows.

Odds today29%

Odds with the plan51%

Net votes to find5,655

WherePrecinct 15 (Socorro County), Precinct 52 (Eddy County), Precinct 34 (Eddy County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Vasquez +2.9. Greg Cunningham needs 5,680 net votes. Odds 29% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

98,324 votes.

That is half of the 196,647 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Cunningham stands today, and what is missing:

94,746 Greg Cunningham baseline

100,401 Gabe Vasquez baseline

Starting line: Vasquez +2.9 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

29% today. 51% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Cunningham wins in

51%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

29%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves34%

The plan on this page sits at 34%. Median outcome at this setting: Cunningham by 272.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

5,155

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 15,296

Who. Ticket splitters and the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 15,296 leaning Vasquez today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Cunningham needs to win 17 percent of the ones now leaning Vasquez.

Mobilize

700

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 17,542

Who. At least 17,542 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Cunningham's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 704

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Cunningham's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 5,938 net votes against a gap of 5,655. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 13% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 15 (Socorro County)persuade
Starting line Vasquez +11. 28.5% split their ticket.
+108
02
Precinct 52 (Eddy County)mobilize
Starting line Cunningham +60. 3.0% split their ticket. About 454 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+95
03
Precinct 34 (Eddy County)mobilize
Starting line Cunningham +59. 5.7% split their ticket. About 274 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+84
04
Precinct 36 (Eddy County)persuade
Starting line Cunningham +72. 5.7% split their ticket. About 137 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+77
05
Precinct 50 (Eddy County)persuade
Starting line Cunningham +59. 7.2% split their ticket. About 176 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+75
06
Precinct 5 (Cibola County)persuade
Starting line Vasquez +38. 7.3% split their ticket.
+53
07
Precinct 31 (Bernalillo County)persuade
Starting line Vasquez +35. 13.2% split their ticket.
+51
08
Precinct 51 (Eddy County)mobilize
Starting line Cunningham +63. 5.4% split their ticket. About 225 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+49
09
Precinct 93 (Bernalillo County)persuade
Starting line Vasquez +48. 6.6% split their ticket.
+48
10
Precinct 46 (Bernalillo County)persuade
Starting line Vasquez +30. 7.3% split their ticket.
+47
11
Precinct 96 (Bernalillo County)persuade
Starting line Vasquez +11. 6.2% split their ticket.
+47
12
Precinct 72 (Lea County)mobilize
Starting line Cunningham +74. 2.2% split their ticket. About 172 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+46

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 15 (Socorro County) carries the most.

Precinct 15 (Socorro County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 108. It sits at Vasquez +11 on our starting line, and 28.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 52 (Eddy County) is a turnout race.

Cunningham's side leads Precinct 52 (Eddy County) by about 60 points on our starting line, and it cast about 454 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 95 votes there.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Vasquez had $2.38 million in cash on hand to Cunningham's $794K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Cunningham's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 651
Slope: 0.964
R²: 0.958
Residual SD: 5.7 pts
Crossover precincts: 120

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Cunningham's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Cunningham, with Vasquez, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,155 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 24
Bank the ballots
In-person early voting opens October 6 at county clerk offices, with more sites from October 17, and runs through October 31. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 25 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 17,542 of them live where Cunningham is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. New Mexico offers same-day registration at polling places in the voter's county on Election Day, with photo ID and proof of address. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 4.2 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 1.8 points; Ronchetti carried the 2022 governor's race by 0.3 points.

Cunningham wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Vasquez.
In Precinct 52 (Eddy County) and Precinct 34 (Eddy County), 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 34 percent of what recent New Mexico results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

1,477 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 28,180 dials to 9,393 households, before the last ballot is cast.

9,393

households on the target list

28K

dials across three attempts

1,477

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,425 at our published rates: 9,393 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Greg Cunningham (R)

U.S. Marine Corps veteran who served 20 years as an Albuquerque Police Department officer and detective and two years with the Bernalillo County Sheriff's Office, then owned GTG Investigations. He is endorsed by President Trump and is part of the NRCC's MAGA Majority program.

Cash on hand $794,187 and $1,328,260 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Gabe Vasquez (D)

U.S. representative for the 2nd District since 2023 and a former Las Cruces city councilor (2017 to 2021). A New Mexico State University journalism graduate, he worked as a business editor, executive director of the Las Cruces Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, a field representative for Sen. Martin Heinrich and in public lands conservation.

Cash on hand $2,378,703 and $3,784,102 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Vasquez +2.9. Greg Cunningham needs 5,680 net votes. Odds 29% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can Greg Cunningham win New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Greg Cunningham needs 5,655 net votes, and recent New Mexico results show about 17,621 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 34 percent of that.

Where are the votes Greg Cunningham needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 15 (Socorro County), Precinct 52 (Eddy County), Precinct 34 (Eddy County), Precinct 36 (Eddy County), Precinct 50 (Eddy County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Greg Cunningham need to persuade?

About 2,578 voters who lean Gabe Vasquez today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 17 percent of the 15,296 persuadable voters leaning Gabe Vasquez.

When does early voting start in New Mexico in 2026?

In-person early voting in New Mexico opens October 6, 2026 at county clerk offices, expands to more sites on October 17, and ends October 31. Online and mail registration closes October 6, and same-day registration is available in person during early voting and on Election Day. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official New Mexico Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official New Mexico Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.

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