What it would have taken for Greg Cunningham.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Vasquez starts 2.9 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Cunningham needs 5,635 net votes, and the plan uses 34 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 15 (Socorro County), Precinct 52 (Eddy County) and Precinct 34 (Eddy County).
Gabe Vasquez won.
Greg Cunningham finished 14.5 points behind our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies, about 98.2% counted, so shares will shift. Source · Second source
Cunningham can win. The plan uses 34 percent of what history allows.
97,974 votes.
That is half of the 195,947 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Cunningham stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: Vasquez +2.9 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
29% today. 51% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 15,231 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Vasquez, plus the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Cunningham needs to win 17 percent of the ones now leaning Vasquez.
Who. At least 17,576 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Cunningham's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Cunningham's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 5,917 net votes against a gap of 5,635. That is a win.
12 precincts carry 13% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+108Precinct 15 (Socorro County)persuadeStarting line Vasquez +11. 28.5% split their ticket.
- 02+95Precinct 52 (Eddy County)mobilizeStarting line Cunningham +60. 3.0% split their ticket. About 454 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+84Precinct 34 (Eddy County)mobilizeStarting line Cunningham +59. 5.7% split their ticket. About 274 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+77Precinct 36 (Eddy County)persuadeStarting line Cunningham +72. 5.7% split their ticket. About 137 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+75Precinct 50 (Eddy County)persuadeStarting line Cunningham +59. 7.2% split their ticket. About 176 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+53Precinct 5 (Cibola County)persuadeStarting line Vasquez +38. 7.3% split their ticket.
- 07+51Precinct 31 (Bernalillo County)persuadeStarting line Vasquez +35. 13.2% split their ticket.
- 08+49Precinct 51 (Eddy County)mobilizeStarting line Cunningham +64. 5.4% split their ticket. About 225 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+48Precinct 93 (Bernalillo County)persuadeStarting line Vasquez +48. 6.6% split their ticket.
- 10+47Precinct 46 (Bernalillo County)persuadeStarting line Vasquez +30. 7.3% split their ticket.
- 11+47Precinct 96 (Bernalillo County)persuadeStarting line Vasquez +11. 6.2% split their ticket.
- 12+46Precinct 72 (Lea County)mobilizeStarting line Cunningham +74. 2.2% split their ticket. About 172 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct 15 (Socorro County) carries the most.
Precinct 15 (Socorro County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 108. It sits at Vasquez +11 on our starting line, and 28.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 52 (Eddy County) is a turnout target.
Cunningham's side leads Precinct 52 (Eddy County) by about 60 points on our starting line, and it cast about 454 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 95 votes there.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Vasquez had $2.38 million in cash on hand to Cunningham's $794K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Cunningham's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 651
- Slope
- 0.964
- R²
- 0.958
- Residual SD
- 5.7 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 120
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Cunningham's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Cunningham, with Vasquez, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,131 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 17 to 24Bank the ballots
In-person early voting opens October 6 at county clerk offices, with more sites from October 17, and runs through October 31. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20.
- October 25 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 17,576 of them live where Cunningham is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. New Mexico offers same-day registration at polling places in the voter's county on Election Day, with photo ID and proof of address. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 4.2 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 1.8 points; Ronchetti carried the 2022 governor's race by 0.3 points.
- Cunningham wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Vasquez.
- In Precinct 52 (Eddy County) and Precinct 34 (Eddy County), 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- No national wave is required. The plan uses 34 percent of what recent New Mexico results show is possible.
- The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
1,473 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 28,111 dials to 9,370 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,414 at our published rates: 9,370 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Greg Cunningham (R)
U.S. Marine Corps veteran who served 20 years as an Albuquerque Police Department officer and detective and two years with the Bernalillo County Sheriff's Office, then owned GTG Investigations. He is endorsed by President Trump.
Cash on hand $794,187 and $1,328,260 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Gabe Vasquez (D)
U.S. representative for the 2nd District since 2023 and a former Las Cruces city councilor (2017 to 2021). A New Mexico State University journalism graduate, he worked as a business editor, executive director of the Las Cruces Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, a field representative for Sen. Martin Heinrich and in public lands conservation.
Cash on hand $2,378,703 and $3,784,102 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Greg Cunningham lost
Unofficial result: Greg Cunningham 41.3%, Gabe Vasquez 58.7%, a margin of 17.4 points. Our starting line had Vasquez +2.9; Cunningham fell short of that line by 14.5 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Vasquez +2.9. Greg Cunningham needs 5,680 net votes. Odds 29% today, 51% with the plan.
Questions
Who won NM-02 in 2026?
Gabe Vasquez won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Greg Cunningham 41.3%, Gabe Vasquez 58.7%, a margin of 17.4 points. Our starting line had Vasquez +2.9; Cunningham fell short of that line by 14.5 points.
Can Greg Cunningham win New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?
Yes, on the math. Greg Cunningham needs 5,635 net votes, and recent New Mexico results show about 17,564 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 34 percent of that.
Where are the votes Greg Cunningham needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 15 (Socorro County), Precinct 52 (Eddy County), Precinct 34 (Eddy County), Precinct 36 (Eddy County), Precinct 50 (Eddy County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Greg Cunningham need to persuade?
About 2,566 voters who lean Gabe Vasquez today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 17 percent of the 15,231 persuadable voters leaning Gabe Vasquez.
When does early voting start in New Mexico in 2026?
In-person early voting in New Mexico opens October 6, 2026 at county clerk offices, expands to more sites on October 17, and ends October 31. Online and mail registration closes October 6, and same-day registration is available in person during early voting and on Election Day. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official New Mexico Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official New Mexico Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- New Mexico Secretary of State, election results
- New Mexico Secretary of State, voting and elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: SurveyUSA (2026-08-28 to 2026-09-02)
- Poll: co/efficient (2026-04-26 to 2026-04-28)