Upset Brief · NM-03 · Martin Zamora (R) vs. Teresa Leger Fernández (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 8.0-point national wave.

3%
odds today
13%
odds with the plan
30,033
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 37 (Lea County)
    Starting line Zamora +73. 4.0% split their ticket. About 243 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +67
  2. 02
    Precinct 18 (Curry County)
    Starting line Zamora +52. 2.0% split their ticket. About 330 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +65
  3. 03
    Precinct 10 (Lea County)
    Starting line Zamora +72. 3.9% split their ticket. About 201 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +61
  4. 04
    Precinct 69 (San Juan County)
    Starting line Zamora +58. 5.1% split their ticket. About 198 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +55
  5. 05
    Precinct 57 (San Juan County)
    Starting line Zamora +65. 3.9% split their ticket. About 180 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +55
  6. 06
    Precinct 20 (Lea County)
    Starting line Zamora +64. 3.9% split their ticket. About 209 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +54

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    6,312 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Leger Fernández today.
    +6,312
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 30,166 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Zamora's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +4,742
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Zamora's way.
    +273

Plus a national shift of 8 points of margin (18,707 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Zamora wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Leger Fernández.
  2. In Precinct 37 (Lea County) and Precinct 18 (Curry County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 8.0 points toward Zamora's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    738 precincts, R² 0.964, 144 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -46,510 to 8,744 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Zamora $242,569 cash on hand; Fernández $666,975.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    30,062 households, 90,187 dials, about 4,726 live conversations: an estimated $9,677 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,677 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All New Mexico races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official New Mexico Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.