What it would take for Martin Zamora.
Leger Fernández starts 12.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 11,327 net votes toward Zamora, a 4.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 8.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Zamora the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 8.0-point national wave.
117,009 votes.
That is half of the 234,016 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Zamora stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
3% today. 13% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 6,312 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Leger Fernández today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Zamora needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Leger Fernández.
Who. At least 30,166 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Zamora's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Zamora's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 11,327 net votes against a gap of 30,033. Still 18,706 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 8 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 6% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+67Precinct 37 (Lea County)mobilizeStarting line Zamora +73. 4.0% split their ticket. About 243 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+65Precinct 18 (Curry County)mobilizeStarting line Zamora +52. 2.0% split their ticket. About 330 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+61Precinct 10 (Lea County)mobilizeStarting line Zamora +72. 3.9% split their ticket. About 201 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+55Precinct 69 (San Juan County)mobilizeStarting line Zamora +58. 5.1% split their ticket. About 198 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+55Precinct 57 (San Juan County)mobilizeStarting line Zamora +65. 3.9% split their ticket. About 180 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+54Precinct 20 (Lea County)mobilizeStarting line Zamora +64. 3.9% split their ticket. About 209 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+53Precinct 7 (Eddy County)mobilizeStarting line Zamora +76. 2.4% split their ticket. About 169 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+52Precinct 31 (Lea County)mobilizeStarting line Zamora +47. 6.9% split their ticket. About 262 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+51Precinct 6 (Eddy County)mobilizeStarting line Zamora +72. 4.3% split their ticket. About 174 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+50Precinct 27 (Lea County)mobilizeStarting line Zamora +77. 3.7% split their ticket. About 149 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 11+49Precinct 40 (Lea County)mobilizeStarting line Zamora +48. 4.8% split their ticket. About 262 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+49Precinct 29 (Lea County)mobilizeStarting line Zamora +62. 3.0% split their ticket. About 203 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct 37 (Lea County) carries the most.
Precinct 37 (Lea County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 67. It sits at Zamora +73 on our starting line, and 4.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 18 (Curry County) is a turnout race.
Zamora's side leads Precinct 18 (Curry County) by about 52 points on our starting line, and it cast about 330 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 59 votes there.
Precinct 31 (Lea County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 31 (Lea County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 6.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Leger Fernández had $667K in cash on hand to Zamora's $243K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Zamora's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 738
- Slope
- 0.976
- R²
- 0.964
- Residual SD
- 9.2 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 144
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Zamora's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 6.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Zamora, with Leger Fernández, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 6,312 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 17 to 24Bank the ballots
In-person early voting opens October 6 at county clerk offices, with more sites from October 17, and runs through October 31. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 25 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 30,166 of them live where Zamora is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. New Mexico offers same-day registration at polling places in the voter's county on Election Day, with photo ID and proof of address. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 12.6 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 5.2 points; Lujan Grisham carried the 2022 governor's race by 10.1 points.
- Zamora wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Leger Fernández.
- In Precinct 37 (Lea County) and Precinct 18 (Curry County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 8.0 points toward Zamora's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
4,726 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 90,187 dials to 30,062 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,677 at our published rates: 30,062 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Martin Zamora (R)
State representative for House District 63 since 2019 and a Clovis native who owns and operates agriculture businesses, including a farm in Clovis and a ranch in Torrance County. He outraised Leger Fernández in the July to September 2025 quarter, $247,065 to $236,834.
Cash on hand $242,569 and $440,623 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Teresa Leger Fernández (D)
U.S. representative for the 3rd District since 2021 and a Las Vegas, New Mexico native who ran Leger Law and Strategy in Santa Fe for three decades, focusing on community development and tribal advocacy. She holds degrees from Yale and Stanford Law School and served on the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation during the Obama administration.
Cash on hand $666,975 and $1,249,949 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Fernández +12.8. Martin Zamora needs 30,033 net votes. Odds 3% today, 13% with the plan.
Questions
Can Martin Zamora win New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 11,327 net votes; the gap is 30,033. The rest would take a 8.0-point national shift.
Where are the votes Martin Zamora needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 37 (Lea County), Precinct 18 (Curry County), Precinct 10 (Lea County), Precinct 69 (San Juan County), Precinct 57 (San Juan County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Martin Zamora need to persuade?
About 3,156 voters who lean Teresa Leger Fernández today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 6,312 persuadable voters leaning Teresa Leger Fernández.
When does early voting start in New Mexico in 2026?
In-person early voting in New Mexico opens October 6, 2026 at county clerk offices, expands to more sites on October 17, and ends October 31. Online and mail registration closes October 6, and same-day registration is available in person during early voting and on Election Day. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official New Mexico Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official New Mexico Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- New Mexico Secretary of State, election results
- New Mexico Secretary of State, voting and elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District election, 2026
- Wikipedia: Martin R. Zamora
- Wikipedia: Teresa Leger Fernández
- NM Political Report: Zamora edges out Leger Fernandez in latest fundraising period; Other Congressional candidates, incumbents report big numbers