Upset Brief · New Mexico U.S. Senate · Larry Marker (R) vs. Ben Ray Luján (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.2-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
5%
odds with the plan
117,811
net votes to find
Ben Ray Luján won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Bernalillo County
    Starting line Luján +29. 15,022 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 66,691 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +15,314
  2. 02
    Santa Fe County
    Starting line Luján +60. 3,937 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 14,317 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +4,064
  3. 03
    San Juan County
    Starting line Marker +22. 2,525 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 12,919 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,900
  4. 04
    Sandoval County
    Starting line Luján +14. 3,671 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 18,570 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,774
  5. 05
    Dona Ana County
    Starting line Luján +21. 3,270 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 27,828 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,416
  6. 06
    Eddy County
    Starting line Marker +46. 1,174 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 6,779 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +2,209

The top 12 counties carry 82% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    44,939 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Luján, plus the 9 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +44,939
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 49,572 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Marker's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +6,317
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Marker's way.
    +1,000

Plus a national shift of 9.2 points of margin (65,555 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Marker wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Luján.
  2. In the precincts Marker's side carries in Lea County and San Juan County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 9.2 points toward Marker's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    2,156 precincts, R² 0.976, 368 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -128,957 to -980 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Marker $11,850 cash on hand; Luján $4,396,754.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    98,191 households, 294,574 dials, about 15,436 live conversations: an estimated $26,993 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $26,993 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All New Mexico races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official New Mexico Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.