New Mexico · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Larry Marker.

Luján starts 16.5 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Campaign work can move about 52,306 net votes toward Marker, a 7.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 9.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Marker the one standing if one comes.

117,934
net votes between Marker and a win
37
days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.
16.5 pts
Luján lead, our starting line from 2026 polls
In short

A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.2-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
Odds with the plan5%
Net votes to find117,934
WhereBernalillo County, Santa Fe County, San Juan County
Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Luján +16.5. Larry Marker needs 118,067 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 5% with the plan.
The number

357,749 votes.

That is half of the 715,497 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Marker stands today, and what is missing:

295,385 Larry Marker baseline
413,319 Ben Ray Luján baseline

Starting line: Luján +16.5 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. 5% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Marker wins in
5%
of 20,000 simulated elections
With no plan
<1%
tieMarker loses by 164,891wins by 39,108
How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%
The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Marker short by 66,118.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade
45K
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 45,000

Who. Ticket splitters and the 9 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 45,000 leaning Luján today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Marker needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Luján.

Mobilize
6,305
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 49,521

Who. At least 49,521 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Marker's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate
1,001
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,860

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Marker's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 52,306 net votes against a gap of 117,934. Still 65,628 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 9.2 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 82% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Bernalillo County: 15,314 net votes in the planCatron County: 170 net votes in the planChaves County: 1,767 net votes in the planCibola County: 638 net votes in the planColfax County: 353 net votes in the planCurry County: 1,148 net votes in the planDe Baca County: 81 net votes in the planDoña Ana County: 3,415 net votes in the planEddy County: 2,209 net votes in the planGrant County: 800 net votes in the planGuadalupe County: 180 net votes in the planHarding County: 37 net votes in the planHidalgo County: 212 net votes in the planLea County: 2,183 net votes in the planLincoln County: 703 net votes in the planLos Alamos County: 566 net votes in the planLuna County: 509 net votes in the planMcKinley County: 1,548 net votes in the planMora County: 196 net votes in the planOtero County: 1,492 net votes in the planQuay County: 263 net votes in the planRio Arriba County: 1,155 net votes in the planRoosevelt County: 499 net votes in the planSan Juan County: 3,899 net votes in the planSan Miguel County: 703 net votes in the planSandoval County: 3,774 net votes in the planSanta Fe County: 4,064 net votes in the planSierra County: 378 net votes in the planSocorro County: 506 net votes in the planTaos County: 863 net votes in the planTorrance County: 563 net votes in the planUnion County: 109 net votes in the planValencia County: 2,008 net votes in the planBernalilloDoña AnaSan JuanSandovalSanta Fe
Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset
  1. 01
    Bernalillo Countypersuade
    Starting line Luján +29. 15,022 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 66,691 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +15,314
  2. 02
    Santa Fe Countypersuade
    Starting line Luján +60. 3,937 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 14,317 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +4,064
  3. 03
    San Juan Countypersuade
    Starting line Marker +22. 2,525 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 12,919 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,899
  4. 04
    Sandoval Countypersuade
    Starting line Luján +14. 3,671 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 18,570 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,774
  5. 05
    Dona Ana Countypersuade
    Starting line Luján +21. 3,270 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 27,828 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,415
  6. 06
    Eddy Countypersuade
    Starting line Marker +46. 1,174 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 6,779 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +2,209
  7. 07
    Lea Countymobilize
    Starting line Marker +56. 893 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 7,246 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +2,183
  8. 08
    Valencia Countypersuade
    Starting line Marker +6. 1,822 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 7,871 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +2,008
  9. 09
    Chaves Countypersuade
    Starting line Marker +36. 1,093 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 5,892 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +1,767
  10. 10
    McKinley Countypersuade
    Starting line Luján +39. 1,505 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 6,426 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +1,548
  11. 11
    Otero Countypersuade
    Starting line Marker +20. 1,100 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 6,660 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +1,492
  12. 12
    Rio Arriba Countypersuade
    Starting line Luján +36. 1,140 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 3,044 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +1,155
What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Bernalillo County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Bernalillo County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 15,314. It sits at Luján +29 on our starting line.

Lea County is a turnout race.

In the precincts Marker's side carries in Lea County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 1,263 votes in this plan.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Luján had $4.40 million in cash on hand to Marker's $12K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 52,306 net votes. The gap is 117,934. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 7.3 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Marker's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

-100-100-80-80-60-60-40-40-20-2000+20+20+40+40+60+60+80+80+100+100Marker's side, President 2024 margin (points)U.S. Senate 2024 margin (points)
Precincts
2,156
Slope
0.942
R²
0.976
Residual SD
5.3 pts
Crossover precincts
368

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Marker's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

  1. Now to October 5
    Find them

    Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Marker, with Luján, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.

  2. October 6 to 16
    Persuade

    Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 45,000 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.

  3. October 17 to 24
    Bank the ballots

    In-person early voting opens October 6 at county clerk offices, with more sites from October 17, and runs through October 31. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.

  4. October 25 to November 2
    Turn them out

    The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 49,521 of them live where Marker is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20.

  5. November 3
    Election day

    Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. New Mexico offers same-day registration at polling places in the voter's county on Election Day, with photo ID and proof of address. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 6.0 points; Heinrich carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 10.1 points; Lujan Grisham carried the 2022 governor's race by 6.4 points.

  1. Marker wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Luján.
  2. In the precincts Marker's side carries in Lea County and San Juan County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 9.2 points toward Marker's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The work

15,444 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 294,727 dials to 98,242 households, before the last ballot is cast.

98K
households on the target list
295K
dials across three attempts
15K
live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $27,007 at our published rates: 98,242 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Larry Marker (R)

Roswell businessman, born in Hobbs, whose background spans oil and gas production, farming, ranching, manufacturing and construction. He won the Republican nomination as a write-in candidate in the June primary and campaigns on energy production, border security and support for farmers and ranchers.

Cash on hand $11,850 and $33,525 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Favorite · incumbent

Ben Ray Luján (D)

U.S. senator since 2021 who represented New Mexico's 3rd District from 2009 to 2021, serving as assistant speaker and as DCCC chair. He previously chaired the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission and holds a business administration degree from New Mexico Highlands University.

Cash on hand $4,396,754 and $5,626,629 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

  1. September 26, 2026
    Underdog plan published

    Starting line: Luján +16.5. Larry Marker needs 118,067 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 5% with the plan.

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Questions

Can Larry Marker win the U.S. Senate race in New Mexico in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 52,306 net votes; the gap is 117,934. The rest would take a 9.2-point national shift.

Where are the votes Larry Marker needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Bernalillo County, Santa Fe County, San Juan County, Sandoval County, Dona Ana County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Larry Marker need to persuade?

About 22,500 voters who lean Ben Ray Luján today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 45,000 persuadable voters leaning Ben Ray Luján.

When does early voting start in New Mexico in 2026?

In-person early voting in New Mexico opens October 6, 2026 at county clerk offices, expands to more sites on October 17, and ends October 31. Online and mail registration closes October 6, and same-day registration is available in person during early voting and on Election Day. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official New Mexico Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official New Mexico Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.

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