What it would have taken for Larry Marker.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Luján starts 16.5 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Campaign work can move about 52,256 net votes toward Marker, a 7.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 9.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Marker the one standing if one comes.
Ben Ray Luján won.
Larry Marker finished 9.9 points behind our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies, about 98.2% counted, so shares will shift. Source · Second source
A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.2-point national wave.
357,378 votes.
That is half of the 714,754 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Marker stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: Luján +16.5 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. 5% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 44,939 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Luján, plus the 9 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Marker needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Luján.
Who. At least 49,572 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Marker's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Marker's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 52,256 net votes against a gap of 117,811. Still 65,555 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 9.2 points that no campaign controls.
12 counties carry 82% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+15,314Bernalillo CountypersuadeStarting line Luján +29. 15,022 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 66,691 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 02+4,064Santa Fe CountypersuadeStarting line Luján +60. 3,937 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 14,317 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 03+3,900San Juan CountypersuadeStarting line Marker +22. 2,525 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 12,919 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 04+3,774Sandoval CountypersuadeStarting line Luján +14. 3,671 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 18,570 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 05+3,416Dona Ana CountypersuadeStarting line Luján +21. 3,270 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 27,828 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 06+2,209Eddy CountypersuadeStarting line Marker +46. 1,174 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 6,779 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 07+2,183Lea CountymobilizeStarting line Marker +56. 893 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 7,246 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 08+2,008Valencia CountypersuadeStarting line Marker +6. 1,822 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 7,871 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 09+1,768Chaves CountypersuadeStarting line Marker +36. 1,093 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 5,892 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 10+1,548McKinley CountypersuadeStarting line Luján +39. 1,505 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 6,426 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 11+1,492Otero CountypersuadeStarting line Marker +20. 1,100 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 6,660 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 12+1,155Rio Arriba CountypersuadeStarting line Luján +36. 1,140 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 3,044 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
The hidden path.
Bernalillo County holds the biggest share of the plan.
Bernalillo County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 15,314. It sits at Luján +29 on our starting line.
Lea County is a turnout target.
In the precincts Marker's side carries in Lea County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 1,263 votes in this plan.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Luján had $4.40 million in cash on hand to Marker's $12K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 52,256 net votes. The gap is 117,811. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 7.3 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Marker's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 2,156
- Slope
- 0.942
- R²
- 0.976
- Residual SD
- 5.3 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 368
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Marker's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Marker, with Luján, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 44,939 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 17 to 24Bank the ballots
In-person early voting opens October 6 at county clerk offices, with more sites from October 17, and runs through October 31. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20.
- October 25 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 49,572 of them live where Marker is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. New Mexico offers same-day registration at polling places in the voter's county on Election Day, with photo ID and proof of address. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results statewide: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 6.0 points; Heinrich carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 10.1 points; Lujan Grisham carried the 2022 governor's race by 6.4 points.
- Marker wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Luján.
- In the precincts Marker's side carries in Lea County and San Juan County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 9.2 points toward Marker's side between now and November 3.
- The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
15,436 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 294,574 dials to 98,191 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $26,993 at our published rates: 98,191 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Larry Marker (R)
Roswell businessman, born in Hobbs, whose background spans oil and gas production, farming, ranching, manufacturing and construction. He won the Republican nomination as a write-in candidate in the June primary and campaigns on energy production, border security and support for farmers and ranchers.
Cash on hand $11,850 and $33,525 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Ben Ray Luján (D)
U.S. senator since 2021 who represented New Mexico's 3rd District from 2009 to 2021, serving as assistant speaker and as DCCC chair. He previously chaired the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission and holds a business administration degree from New Mexico Highlands University.
Cash on hand $4,396,754 and $5,626,629 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Larry Marker lost
Unofficial result: Larry Marker 36.8%, Ben Ray Luján 63.2%, a margin of 26.4 points. Our starting line had Luján +16.5; Marker fell short of that line by 9.9 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Luján +16.5. Larry Marker needs 118,067 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 5% with the plan.
Questions
Who won New Mexico U.S. Senate in 2026?
Ben Ray Luján won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Larry Marker 36.8%, Ben Ray Luján 63.2%, a margin of 26.4 points. Our starting line had Luján +16.5; Marker fell short of that line by 9.9 points.
Can Larry Marker win the U.S. Senate race in New Mexico in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 52,256 net votes; the gap is 117,811. The rest would take a 9.2-point national shift.
Where are the votes Larry Marker needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Bernalillo County, Santa Fe County, San Juan County, Sandoval County, Dona Ana County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Larry Marker need to persuade?
About 22,470 voters who lean Ben Ray Luján today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 44,939 persuadable voters leaning Ben Ray Luján.
When does early voting start in New Mexico in 2026?
In-person early voting in New Mexico opens October 6, 2026 at county clerk offices, expands to more sites on October 17, and ends October 31. Online and mail registration closes October 6, and same-day registration is available in person during early voting and on Election Day. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official New Mexico Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official New Mexico Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- New Mexico Secretary of State, election results
- New Mexico Secretary of State, voting and elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: Research & Polling Inc. (2026-08-21 to 2026-08-28)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: 2026 United States Senate election in New Mexico
- Albuquerque Journal: Journal Poll: Luján with sizable lead in Senate race
- KUNM: Sen. Ben Ray Lujan will face off against Republican write-in candidate Larry Marker in November
- Wikipedia: Ben Ray Luján