Upset Brief · OK-01 · John Croisant (D) vs. Mark Tedford (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.6-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
2%
odds with the plan
49,163
net votes to find
Mark Tedford won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 720203 (Tulsa County)
    Starting line Tedford +40. 17.4% split their ticket.
    +169
  2. 02
    Precinct 720096 (Tulsa County)
    Starting line Croisant +7. 17.9% split their ticket.
    +151
  3. 03
    Precinct 720097 (Tulsa County)
    Starting line Croisant +4. 19.2% split their ticket.
    +137
  4. 04
    Precinct 720128 (Tulsa County)
    Starting line Croisant +11. 12.9% split their ticket.
    +134
  5. 05
    Precinct 720062 (Tulsa County)
    Starting line Tedford +41. 11.9% split their ticket.
    +127
  6. 06
    Precinct 720031 (Tulsa County)
    Starting line Croisant +77. 3.8% split their ticket. About 341 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +125

The top 12 precincts carry 10% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    12,605 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Tedford today.
    +12,605
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 8,622 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Croisant's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,010
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Croisant's way.
    +1,239

Plus a national shift of 14.6 points of margin (34,309 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Croisant wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Tedford.
  2. In Precinct 720031 (Tulsa County) and Precinct 720090 (Tulsa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 14.6 points toward Croisant's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    296 precincts, R² 0.993, 49 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -62,029 to -6,157 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Croisant $36,579 cash on hand; Tedford $173,735.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    25,786 households, 77,357 dials, about 4,054 live conversations: an estimated $8,623 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,623 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Oklahoma races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.