Oklahoma · 6 federal races · 37 days left

Every Oklahoma race. From the other side.

The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.

Oklahoma's congressional districts are the 2021 map, unchanged for 2026. The U.S. Senate race is the regular election for the seat Markwayne Mullin resigned in March 2026 to become Secretary of Homeland Security; appointed Senator Alan Armstrong is not on the ballot.

Oklahoma's precinct returns here come from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab files built from State Election Board data, reconciled to the official statewide and district totals. Oklahoma and Tulsa counties report mail and early votes countywide; those votes are spread across each county's precincts in proportion to their own results.

See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.
6
underdog plans, built from precinct returns
14,332
net votes: the closest upset in Oklahoma (OK-05)
37
days until November 3. Early voting opens October 28.
Pick a race

6 plans. One question each.

Oklahoma U.S. Senate · open seat
What it would take for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas
342,593 net votes to find, most of them in Oklahoma County and Tulsa County.
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OK-01 · open seat
What it would take for John Croisant
49,999 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 720203 (Tulsa County) and Precinct 720096 (Tulsa County).
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OK-02 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Brandon Wade
111,464 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 510040 (Muskogee County) and Precinct 110002 (Cherokee County).
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OK-03 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Suzie Byrd
82,171 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 200020 (Custer County) and Precinct 600401 (Payne County).
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OK-04 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Mitchell Jacob
66,984 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 140304 (Cleveland County) and Precinct 140317 (Cleveland County).
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OK-05 · vs. incumbent
How Jena Nelson wins
14,332 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 090200 (Canadian County) and Precinct 090507 (Canadian County).
See the path ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Oklahoma 2026 election guide.