Oklahoma · 6 federal races · election held November 3

Every Oklahoma race. From the other side.

The election is over. 6 of 6 races are called so far, and no underdog won. Each plan below stays up as the record, with the result beside it.

The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.

Oklahoma's congressional districts are the 2021 map, unchanged for 2026. The U.S. Senate race is the regular election for the seat Markwayne Mullin resigned in March 2026 to become Secretary of Homeland Security; appointed Senator Alan Armstrong is not on the ballot.

Oklahoma's precinct returns here come from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab files built from State Election Board data, reconciled to the official statewide and district totals. Oklahoma and Tulsa counties report mail and early votes countywide; those votes are spread across each county's precincts in proportion to their own results.

See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.

underdog plans, built from precinct returns

14,332

net votes: the closest upset in Oklahoma (OK-05)

underdog wins out of 6 races called so far

Pick a race

6 plans. One question each.

Oklahoma U.S. Senate · open seat

What it would take for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas

341,950 net votes to find, most of them in Oklahoma County and Tulsa County.

Result: Kevin Hern won.

See the path and the result ›

OK-01 · open seat

What it would take for John Croisant

49,163 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 720203 (Tulsa County) and Precinct 720096 (Tulsa County).

Result: Mark Tedford won.

See the path and the result ›

OK-02 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Brandon Wade

111,464 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 510040 (Muskogee County) and Precinct 110002 (Cherokee County).

Result: Josh Brecheen won.

See the path and the result ›

OK-03 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Suzie Byrd

81,898 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 200020 (Custer County) and Precinct 600401 (Payne County).

Result: Frank Lucas won.

See the path and the result ›

OK-04 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Mitchell Jacob

66,984 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 140304 (Cleveland County) and Precinct 140317 (Cleveland County).

Result: Tom Cole won.

See the path and the result ›

OK-05 · vs. incumbent

How Jena Nelson wins

14,332 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 090200 (Canadian County) and Precinct 090507 (Canadian County).

Result: Stephanie Bice won.

See the path and the result ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Oklahoma 2026 election guide.