The Political Group · Oklahoma 2026 · as of September 26, 2026

Where a dollar moves an Oklahoma race.

The November 3, 2026 election is over; each race now shows its result beside the plan, which stays up as the record. 6 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall programResult
OK-05
Jena Nelson vs. Stephanie Bice
14% → 52%+38 pts14,332$7,900
22,780 households
Stephanie Bice wonBrief ›
Oklahoma U.S. Senate
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas vs. Kevin Hern
0% → 3%+3 pts341,950$72,714
264,511 households
Kevin Hern wonBrief ›
OK-01
John Croisant vs. Mark Tedford
<1% → 2%+2 pts49,163$8,623
25,786 households
Mark Tedford wonBrief ›
OK-02
Brandon Wade vs. Josh Brecheen
0% → 0%+0 pts111,464$6,730
18,107 households
Josh Brecheen wonBrief ›
OK-03
Suzie Byrd vs. Frank Lucas
0% → 0%+0 pts81,898$7,013
20,223 households
Frank Lucas wonBrief ›
OK-04
Mitchell Jacob vs. Tom Cole
<1% → <1%+0 pts66,984$8,258
23,812 households
Tom Cole wonBrief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · OK-05 · Jena Nelson (D) vs. Stephanie Bice (R) · incumbent

Nelson can win. The plan uses 50 percent of what history allows.

Odds today14%
With the plan52%
Net votes to find14,332
Call program$7,900

Where

  1. Precinct 090200 (Canadian County) +246
    Starting line Bice +16. 13.6% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 090507 (Canadian County) +227
    Starting line Bice +29. 13.9% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 550361 (Oklahoma County) +218
    Starting line Bice +6. 17.1% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 550334 (Oklahoma County) +208
    Starting line Bice +4. 12.5% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 550357 (Oklahoma County) +202
    Starting line Bice +18. 15.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +13,320
    26,407 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Bice, plus the 9 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +1,326
    At least 17,477 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Nelson's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +403
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Nelson's way.

What has to be true

  1. Nelson wins 25 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Bice.
  2. No national wave is required. The plan uses 50 percent of what recent Oklahoma results show is possible.
  3. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    317 precincts, slope 0.949, R² 0.992, 39 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -22,300 to 23,448
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Nelson $17,334 · Bice $2,021,981
  • Call program
    22,780 households, 68,341 dials, about 3,581 live conversations and 1,221 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · Oklahoma U.S. Senate · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) vs. Kevin Hern (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.3-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan3%
Net votes to find341,950
Call program$72,714

Where

  1. Oklahoma County +35,950
    Starting line Hern +1. 32,370 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 66,387 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  2. Tulsa County +29,902
    Starting line Hern +14. 27,851 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 62,822 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  3. Cleveland County +14,285
    Starting line Hern +10. 13,411 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 27,994 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  4. Canadian County +7,736
    Starting line Hern +37. 7,547 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 22,848 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  5. Rogers County +4,818
    Starting line Hern +50. 4,728 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 12,952 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 65% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +167,901
    167,901 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Hern, plus the 19 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +4,296
    At least 34,514 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Thomas's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +4,561
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Thomas's way.

Plus a 14.3-point national shift (165,192 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Thomas wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Hern.
  2. In the precincts Thomas's side carries in Oklahoma County and Tulsa County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 14.3 points toward Thomas's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    1,972 precincts, slope 0.940, R² 0.981, 191 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -288,259 to -30,896
  • Cash on hand
    Thomas $456 · Hern $2,491,910
  • Call program
    264,511 households, 793,532 dials, about 41,581 live conversations and 14,179 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OK-01 · John Croisant (D) vs. Mark Tedford (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.6-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan2%
Net votes to find49,163
Call program$8,623

Where

  1. Precinct 720203 (Tulsa County) +169
    Starting line Tedford +40. 17.4% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 720096 (Tulsa County) +151
    Starting line Croisant +7. 17.9% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 720097 (Tulsa County) +137
    Starting line Croisant +4. 19.2% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 720128 (Tulsa County) +134
    Starting line Croisant +11. 12.9% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 720062 (Tulsa County) +127
    Starting line Tedford +41. 11.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 10% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +12,605
    12,605 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Tedford today.
  • Mobilize +1,010
    At least 8,622 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Croisant's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +1,239
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Croisant's way.

Plus a 14.6-point national shift (34,309 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Croisant wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Tedford.
  2. In Precinct 720031 (Tulsa County) and Precinct 720090 (Tulsa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 14.6 points toward Croisant's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    296 precincts, slope 0.982, R² 0.993, 49 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -62,029 to -6,157
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Croisant $36,579 · Tedford $173,735
  • Call program
    25,786 households, 77,357 dials, about 4,054 live conversations and 1,382 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OK-02 · Brandon Wade (D) vs. Josh Brecheen (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 42.4-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find111,464
Call program$6,730

Where

  1. Precinct 510040 (Muskogee County) +138
    Starting line Brecheen +45. 13.1% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 110002 (Cherokee County) +108
    Starting line Brecheen +6. 14.2% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 730207 (Wagoner County) +95
    Starting line Brecheen +43. 12.6% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 660110 (Rogers County) +91
    Starting line Brecheen +44. 12.0% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 070033 (Bryan County) +82
    Starting line Brecheen +49. 14.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +11,714
    11,714 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Brecheen today.
  • Mobilize +97
    Few precincts give Wade's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  • Consolidate +760
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 42.4-point national shift (98,893 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Wade wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Brecheen.
  2. It would take a national shift of about 42.4 points toward Wade's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    541 precincts, slope 0.963, R² 0.968, 62 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -126,322 to -71,004
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Wade $86 · Brecheen $76,064
  • Call program
    18,107 households, 54,320 dials, about 2,846 live conversations and 970 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OK-03 · Suzie Byrd (D) vs. Frank Lucas (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 35.0-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find81,898
Call program$7,013

Where

  1. Precinct 200020 (Custer County) +131
    Starting line Lucas +52. 17.3% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 600401 (Payne County) +122
    Starting line Lucas +27. 16.8% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 600015 (Payne County) +117
    Starting line Lucas +6. 19.5% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 090301 (Canadian County) +117
    Starting line Lucas +43. 12.6% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 570313 (Osage County) +113
    Starting line Byrd +79. 3.2% split their ticket. About 335 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 11% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +11,341
    11,341 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lucas today.
  • Mobilize +634
    At least 5,731 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Byrd's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +314
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Byrd's way.

Plus a 35-point national shift (69,610 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Byrd wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lucas.
  2. In Precinct 570313 (Osage County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 35.0 points toward Byrd's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    456 precincts, slope 0.976, R² 0.939, 71 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -93,536 to -45,854
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Byrd n/a · Lucas $532,512
  • Call program
    20,223 households, 60,670 dials, about 3,179 live conversations and 1,084 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OK-04 · Mitchell Jacob (D) vs. Tom Cole (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.3-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find66,984
Call program$8,258

Where

  1. Precinct 140304 (Cleveland County) +146
    Starting line Cole +9. 14.3% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 140317 (Cleveland County) +131
    Starting line Jacob +6. 12.6% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 620053 (Pontotoc County) +131
    Starting line Cole +32. 23.5% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 620016 (Pontotoc County) +128
    Starting line Cole +32. 21.1% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 620025 (Pontotoc County) +121
    Starting line Cole +36. 22.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 10% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +12,992
    12,992 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cole today.
  • Mobilize +533
    At least 5,917 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jacob's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +913
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jacob's way.

Plus a 23.3-point national shift (52,546 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Jacob wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cole.
  2. In Precinct 140315 (Cleveland County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 23.3 points toward Jacob's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    358 precincts, slope 0.935, R² 0.985, 36 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -79,699 to -25,482
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Jacob $4,166 · Cole $2,599,733
  • Call program
    23,812 households, 71,436 dials, about 3,743 live conversations and 1,276 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.