What it would take for John Croisant.
Tedford starts 21.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 14,942 net votes toward Croisant, a 6.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 14.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Croisant the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.8-point national wave.
118,324 votes.
That is half of the 236,647 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Croisant stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 12,689 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Tedford today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Croisant needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Tedford.
Who. At least 8,622 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Croisant's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Croisant's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 14,942 net votes against a gap of 49,999. Still 35,057 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 14.8 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 10% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+169Precinct 720203 (Tulsa County)persuadeStarting line Tedford +40. 17.4% split their ticket.
- 02+151Precinct 720096 (Tulsa County)persuadeStarting line Croisant +7. 17.9% split their ticket.
- 03+137Precinct 720097 (Tulsa County)persuadeStarting line Croisant +4. 19.2% split their ticket.
- 04+134Precinct 720128 (Tulsa County)persuadeStarting line Croisant +11. 12.9% split their ticket.
- 05+127Precinct 720062 (Tulsa County)persuadeStarting line Tedford +41. 11.9% split their ticket.
- 06+125Precinct 720031 (Tulsa County)mobilizeStarting line Croisant +77. 3.8% split their ticket. About 341 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+123Precinct 720204 (Tulsa County)persuadeStarting line Tedford +32. 12.7% split their ticket.
- 08+115Precinct 720201 (Tulsa County)persuadeStarting line Tedford +40. 14.5% split their ticket.
- 09+115Precinct 720090 (Tulsa County)persuadeStarting line Croisant +26. 9.6% split their ticket. About 282 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+114Precinct 720094 (Tulsa County)persuadeStarting line Croisant +16. 14.6% split their ticket. About 142 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 11+114Precinct 720119 (Tulsa County)persuadeStarting line Croisant +14. 14.8% split their ticket. About 263 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+113Precinct 720206 (Tulsa County)persuadeStarting line Tedford +39. 14.9% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 720203 (Tulsa County) carries the most.
Precinct 720203 (Tulsa County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 169. It sits at Tedford +40 on our starting line, and 17.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 720031 (Tulsa County) is a turnout race.
Croisant's side leads Precinct 720031 (Tulsa County) by about 77 points on our starting line, and it cast about 341 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 86 votes there.
Precinct 720097 (Tulsa County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 720097 (Tulsa County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 19.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Tedford had $174K in cash on hand to Croisant's $37K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Croisant's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 296
- Slope
- 0.982
- R²
- 0.993
- Residual SD
- 2.6 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 49
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Croisant's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 28.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Croisant, with Tedford, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 10 to 19Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 12,689 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 20 to 27Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 28 through October 31. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, and Oklahoma has no drop boxes. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 28 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 8,622 of them live where Croisant is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests are due by 5 p.m. on October 19, and the envelope must be notarized.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Oklahoma has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 9. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 25.9 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 21.5 points; Stitt carried the 2022 governor's race by 5.5 points.
- Croisant wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Tedford.
- In Precinct 720031 (Tulsa County) and Precinct 720090 (Tulsa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 14.8 points toward Croisant's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
4,073 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 77,736 dials to 25,912 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,665 at our published rates: 25,912 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
John Croisant (D)
Tulsa Public Schools board member for District 5 since 2020, insurance agency owner and former social studies teacher and soccer coach at Edison Prep. A Tulsa native, he graduated from Jenks High School and the University of Tulsa (1999).
Cash on hand $36,579 and $141,972 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Mark Tedford (R)
State representative for House District 69 (Jenks and south Tulsa) since 2022 and owner and CEO of Tedford Insurance, an independent commercial insurance and employee benefits agency. A Jenks High graduate who played football at Missouri Southern, he holds an MBA from the University of Tulsa.
Cash on hand $173,735 and $1,763,830 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Tedford +21.1. John Croisant needs 49,999 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 2% with the plan.
Questions
Can John Croisant win Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 14,942 net votes; the gap is 49,999. The rest would take a 14.8-point national shift.
Where are the votes John Croisant needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 720203 (Tulsa County), Precinct 720096 (Tulsa County), Precinct 720097 (Tulsa County), Precinct 720128 (Tulsa County), Precinct 720062 (Tulsa County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does John Croisant need to persuade?
About 6,344 voters who lean Mark Tedford today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 12,689 persuadable voters leaning Mark Tedford.
When does early voting start in Oklahoma in 2026?
Early in-person voting in Oklahoma runs October 28 through October 30, 2026 from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., and October 31 from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. The registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests are due by 5 p.m. on October 19, the envelope must be notarized, and mailed ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Oklahoma does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Oklahoma State Election Board returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Oklahoma State Election Board, elections
- MIT Election Data and Science Lab, 2024 precinct returns (built from State Election Board files)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: John Croisant
- Wikipedia: Mark Tedford
- NonDoc: CD 1: Jackson Lahmeyer drops out day after primary, Trump flips endorsement