A long shot on the math: it takes a 42.4-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 510040 (Muskogee County)

   Starting line Brecheen +45. 13.1% split their ticket.
   +138
2. 02
   Precinct 110002 (Cherokee County)

   Starting line Brecheen +6. 14.2% split their ticket.
   +108
3. 03
   Precinct 730207 (Wagoner County)

   Starting line Brecheen +43. 12.6% split their ticket.
   +95
4. 04
   Precinct 660110 (Rogers County)

   Starting line Brecheen +44. 12.0% split their ticket.
   +91
5. 05
   Precinct 070033 (Bryan County)

   Starting line Brecheen +49. 14.4% split their ticket.
   +82
6. 06
   Precinct 730206 (Wagoner County)

   Starting line Brecheen +28. 10.9% split their ticket.
   +82

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  11,714 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Brecheen today.
  +11,714
• M
  Mobilize

  Few precincts give Wade's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +97
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +760

Plus a national shift of 42.4 points of margin (98,893 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Wade wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Brecheen.
2. It would take a national shift of about 42.4 points toward Wade's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  541 precincts, R² 0.968, 62 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -126,322 to -71,004 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Wade $86 cash on hand; Brecheen $76,064.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  18,107 households, 54,320 dials, about 2,846 live conversations: an estimated $6,730 at published rates.