Oklahoma · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Brandon Wade.

Brecheen starts 47.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 12,571 net votes toward Wade, a 5.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 42.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Wade the one standing if one comes.

111,464

net votes between Wade and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 28.

47.8 pts

Brecheen lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Oklahoma races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 42.4-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find111,464

WherePrecinct 510040 (Muskogee County), Precinct 110002 (Cherokee County), Precinct 730207 (Wagoner County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Brecheen +47.8. Brandon Wade needs 111,464 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

116,713 votes.

That is half of the 233,425 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Wade stands today, and what is missing:

56,888 Brandon Wade baseline

168,352 Josh Brecheen baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Wade wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Wade short by 98,952.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

12K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 11,714

Who. 11,714 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Brecheen today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Wade needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Brecheen.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 641

Who. At least 641 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Wade's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

760

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,172

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Wade's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 12,571 net votes against a gap of 111,464. Still 98,893 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 42.4 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 8% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 510040 (Muskogee County)persuade
Starting line Brecheen +45. 13.1% split their ticket.
+138
02
Precinct 110002 (Cherokee County)persuade
Starting line Brecheen +6. 14.2% split their ticket.
+108
03
Precinct 730207 (Wagoner County)persuade
Starting line Brecheen +43. 12.6% split their ticket.
+95
04
Precinct 660110 (Rogers County)persuade
Starting line Brecheen +44. 12.0% split their ticket.
+91
05
Precinct 070033 (Bryan County)persuade
Starting line Brecheen +49. 14.4% split their ticket.
+82
06
Precinct 730206 (Wagoner County)persuade
Starting line Brecheen +28. 10.9% split their ticket.
+82
07
Precinct 740051 (Washington County)persuade
Starting line Brecheen +46. 11.0% split their ticket.
+80
08
Precinct 640002 (Pushmataha County)persuade
Starting line Brecheen +60. 13.8% split their ticket.
+78
09
Precinct 210022 (Delaware County)persuade
Starting line Brecheen +50. 13.2% split their ticket.
+77
10
Precinct 660030 (Rogers County)persuade
Starting line Brecheen +58. 8.7% split their ticket.
+71
11
Precinct 210007 (Delaware County)persuade
Starting line Brecheen +51. 8.8% split their ticket.
+71
12
Precinct 510055 (Muskogee County)persuade
Starting line Brecheen +45. 10.4% split their ticket.
+71

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 510040 (Muskogee County) carries the most.

Precinct 510040 (Muskogee County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 138. It sits at Brecheen +45 on our starting line, and 13.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 070033 (Bryan County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 070033 (Bryan County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 14.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Brecheen had $76K in cash on hand to Wade's $86. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 12,571 net votes. The gap is 111,464. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 5.4 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Wade's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 541
Slope: 0.963
R²: 0.968
Residual SD: 3.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 62

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Wade's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 28.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Wade, with Brecheen, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 10 to 19
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 11,714 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 20 to 27
Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 28 through October 31. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, and Oklahoma has no drop boxes. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 641 of them live where Wade is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests are due by 5 p.m. on October 19, and the envelope must be notarized.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Oklahoma has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 9. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 52.7 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 55.6 points; Stitt carried the 2022 governor's race by 29.8 points.

Wade wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Brecheen.
The national environment moves about 42.4 points toward Wade's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,846 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 54,320 dials to 18,107 households, before the last ballot is cast.

18K

households on the target list

54K

dials across three attempts

2,846

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,730 at our published rates: 18,107 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Brandon Wade (D)

Bartlesville native and Copan High School graduate who has worked as an oil industry laborer and served as a union committee chairman and executive board member of IUOE Local 351.

Cash on hand $86 and $4,290 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Josh Brecheen (R)

U.S. representative since 2023 and a Choctaw Nation citizen, he served in the Oklahoma Senate from 2010 to 2018 and was a field representative for Sen. Tom Coburn. A former Oklahoma FFA state president, he holds an Oklahoma State degree in animal science and agricultural communications and chairs a Homeland Security oversight subcommittee.

Cash on hand $76,064 and $218,894 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Ronnie Hopkins (I)

Pastor from Rose, Oklahoma, making his second independent run for the 2nd District.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Brecheen +47.8. Brandon Wade needs 111,464 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Brandon Wade win Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 12,571 net votes; the gap is 111,464. The rest would take a 42.4-point national shift.

Where are the votes Brandon Wade needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 510040 (Muskogee County), Precinct 110002 (Cherokee County), Precinct 730207 (Wagoner County), Precinct 660110 (Rogers County), Precinct 070033 (Bryan County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Brandon Wade need to persuade?

About 5,857 voters who lean Josh Brecheen today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 11,714 persuadable voters leaning Josh Brecheen.

When does early voting start in Oklahoma in 2026?

Early in-person voting in Oklahoma runs October 28 through October 30, 2026 from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., and October 31 from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. The registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests are due by 5 p.m. on October 19, the envelope must be notarized, and mailed ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Oklahoma does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Oklahoma State Election Board returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.