Upset Brief · OK-03 · Suzie Byrd (D) vs. Frank Lucas (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 35.0-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
81,898
net votes to find
Frank Lucas won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 200020 (Custer County)
    Starting line Lucas +52. 17.3% split their ticket.
    +131
  2. 02
    Precinct 600401 (Payne County)
    Starting line Lucas +27. 16.8% split their ticket.
    +122
  3. 03
    Precinct 600015 (Payne County)
    Starting line Lucas +6. 19.5% split their ticket.
    +117
  4. 04
    Precinct 090301 (Canadian County)
    Starting line Lucas +43. 12.6% split their ticket.
    +117
  5. 05
    Precinct 570313 (Osage County)
    Starting line Byrd +79. 3.2% split their ticket. About 335 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +113
  6. 06
    Precinct 600009 (Payne County)
    Starting line Byrd +2. 18.7% split their ticket.
    +113

The top 12 precincts carry 11% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    11,341 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lucas today.
    +11,341
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 5,731 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Byrd's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +634
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Byrd's way.
    +314

Plus a national shift of 35 points of margin (69,610 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Byrd wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lucas.
  2. In Precinct 570313 (Osage County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 35.0 points toward Byrd's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    456 precincts, R² 0.939, 71 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -93,536 to -45,854 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Byrd no FEC totals reported; Lucas $532,512.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    20,223 households, 60,670 dials, about 3,179 live conversations: an estimated $7,013 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,013 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Oklahoma races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.