What it would have taken for Suzie Byrd.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Lucas starts 41.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 12,289 net votes toward Byrd, a 6.2-point gain. Winning outright would take a 35.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Byrd the one standing if one comes.
Frank Lucas won.
Suzie Byrd ran 13.1 points ahead of our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies. Source · Second source
A long shot on the math: it takes a 35.0-point national wave.
99,519 votes.
That is half of the 199,037 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Byrd stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 11,341 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lucas today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Byrd needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Lucas.
Who. At least 5,731 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Byrd's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Byrd's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 12,289 net votes against a gap of 81,898. Still 69,609 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 35 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 11% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+131Precinct 200020 (Custer County)persuadeStarting line Lucas +52. 17.3% split their ticket.
- 02+122Precinct 600401 (Payne County)persuadeStarting line Lucas +27. 16.8% split their ticket.
- 03+117Precinct 600015 (Payne County)persuadeStarting line Lucas +6. 19.5% split their ticket.
- 04+117Precinct 090301 (Canadian County)persuadeStarting line Lucas +43. 12.6% split their ticket.
- 05+113Precinct 570313 (Osage County)mobilizeStarting line Byrd +79. 3.2% split their ticket. About 335 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+113Precinct 600009 (Payne County)persuadeStarting line Byrd +2. 18.7% split their ticket.
- 07+108Precinct 090312 (Canadian County)persuadeStarting line Lucas +26. 13.0% split their ticket.
- 08+107Precinct 600016 (Payne County)persuadeStarting line Lucas +1. 15.1% split their ticket.
- 09+103Precinct 600301 (Payne County)persuadeStarting line Lucas +41. 13.9% split their ticket.
- 10+98Precinct 600402 (Payne County)persuadeStarting line Lucas +26. 17.2% split their ticket.
- 11+94Precinct 090227 (Canadian County)persuadeStarting line Lucas +31. 14.2% split their ticket.
- 12+94Precinct 600004 (Payne County)persuadeStarting line Byrd +4. 15.4% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 200020 (Custer County) carries the most.
Precinct 200020 (Custer County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 131. It sits at Lucas +52 on our starting line, and 17.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 570313 (Osage County) is a turnout target.
Byrd's side leads Precinct 570313 (Osage County) by about 79 points on our starting line, and it cast about 335 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 92 votes there.
Precinct 600015 (Payne County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 600015 (Payne County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 19.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 12,289 net votes. The gap is 81,898. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 6.2 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Byrd's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 456
- Slope
- 0.976
- R²
- 0.939
- Residual SD
- 7.9 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 71
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Byrd's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Byrd, with Lucas, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 10 to 19Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 11,341 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase. Requests are due by 5 p.m. on October 19, and the envelope must be notarized.
- October 20 to 31Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 28 through October 31. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, and Oklahoma has no drop boxes. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- November 1 to 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 5,731 of them live where Byrd is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Oklahoma has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 9. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 45.7 points; Stitt carried the 2022 governor's race by 26.4 points.
- Byrd wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lucas.
- In Precinct 570313 (Osage County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 35.0 points toward Byrd's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
3,179 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 60,670 dials to 20,223 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,013 at our published rates: 20,223 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Suzie Byrd (D)
Enid resident and former Enid News & Eagle reporter who grew up in Hennessey and ran track at Oklahoma State, where she is recognized as the university's first female All-American athlete; she earned a journalism degree at OSU and has owned or partnered in more than a dozen businesses.
Frank Lucas (R)
Farmer and rancher who has represented western Oklahoma in Congress since 1994 and is dean of the state's delegation; he previously chaired the House Agriculture and Science committees and served in the Oklahoma House from 1989 to 1994. He holds a B.S. from Oklahoma State University.
Cash on hand $532,512 and $907,279 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Suzie Byrd lost
Unofficial result: Suzie Byrd 36.0%, Frank Lucas 64.0%, a margin of 28.0 points. Our starting line had Lucas +41.1; Byrd ran ahead of that line by 13.1 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Lucas +41.2. Suzie Byrd needs 82,171 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Who won OK-03 in 2026?
Frank Lucas won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Suzie Byrd 36.0%, Frank Lucas 64.0%, a margin of 28.0 points. Our starting line had Lucas +41.1; Byrd ran ahead of that line by 13.1 points.
Can Suzie Byrd win Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 12,289 net votes against a gap of 81,898; the rest would take a 35.0-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Suzie Byrd needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 200020 (Custer County), Precinct 600401 (Payne County), Precinct 600015 (Payne County), Precinct 090301 (Canadian County), Precinct 570313 (Osage County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Suzie Byrd need to persuade?
About 5,670 voters who lean Frank Lucas today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 11,341 persuadable voters leaning Frank Lucas.
When does early voting start in Oklahoma in 2026?
Early in-person voting in Oklahoma runs October 28 through October 30, 2026 from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., and October 31 from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. The registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests are due by 5 p.m. on October 19, the envelope must be notarized, and mailed ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Oklahoma does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Oklahoma State Election Board returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Oklahoma State Election Board, elections
- MIT Election Data and Science Lab, 2024 precinct returns (built from State Election Board files)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District election, 2026
- Wikipedia: Frank Lucas (Oklahoma politician)