Upset Brief · OK-04 · Mitchell Jacob (D) vs. Tom Cole (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.3-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
66,984
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 28
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 140304 (Cleveland County)
    Starting line Cole +9. 14.3% split their ticket.
    +146
  2. 02
    Precinct 140317 (Cleveland County)
    Starting line Jacob +6. 12.6% split their ticket.
    +131
  3. 03
    Precinct 620053 (Pontotoc County)
    Starting line Cole +32. 23.5% split their ticket.
    +131
  4. 04
    Precinct 620016 (Pontotoc County)
    Starting line Cole +32. 21.1% split their ticket.
    +128
  5. 05
    Precinct 620025 (Pontotoc County)
    Starting line Cole +36. 22.6% split their ticket.
    +121
  6. 06
    Precinct 140113 (Cleveland County)
    Starting line Cole +34. 14.1% split their ticket.
    +116

The top 12 precincts carry 10% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    12,992 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cole today.
    +12,992
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 5,917 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jacob's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +533
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jacob's way.
    +913

Plus a national shift of 23.3 points of margin (52,546 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Jacob wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cole.
  2. In Precinct 140315 (Cleveland County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 23.3 points toward Jacob's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    358 precincts, R² 0.985, 36 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -79,699 to -25,482 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Jacob $4,166 cash on hand; Cole $2,599,733.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    23,812 households, 71,436 dials, about 3,743 live conversations: an estimated $8,258 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,258 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Oklahoma races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.