What it would take for Mitchell Jacob.
Cole starts 29.7 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 14,438 net votes toward Jacob, a 6.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 23.3-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Jacob the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.3-point national wave.
112,929 votes.
That is half of the 225,857 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Jacob stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 12,992 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cole today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Jacob needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Cole.
Who. At least 5,917 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jacob's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jacob's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 14,438 net votes against a gap of 66,984. Still 52,546 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 23.3 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 10% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+146Precinct 140304 (Cleveland County)persuadeStarting line Cole +9. 14.3% split their ticket.
- 02+131Precinct 140317 (Cleveland County)persuadeStarting line Jacob +6. 12.6% split their ticket.
- 03+131Precinct 620053 (Pontotoc County)persuadeStarting line Cole +32. 23.5% split their ticket.
- 04+128Precinct 620016 (Pontotoc County)persuadeStarting line Cole +32. 21.1% split their ticket.
- 05+121Precinct 620025 (Pontotoc County)persuadeStarting line Cole +36. 22.6% split their ticket.
- 06+116Precinct 140113 (Cleveland County)persuadeStarting line Cole +34. 14.1% split their ticket.
- 07+115Precinct 140301 (Cleveland County)persuadeStarting line Cole +19. 15.7% split their ticket.
- 08+109Precinct 140300 (Cleveland County)persuadeStarting line Cole +8. 14.8% split their ticket.
- 09+109Precinct 140307 (Cleveland County)persuadeStarting line Jacob +4. 12.0% split their ticket.
- 10+108Precinct 140102 (Cleveland County)persuadeStarting line Cole +30. 14.2% split their ticket.
- 11+106Precinct 140315 (Cleveland County)persuadeStarting line Jacob +27. 10.1% split their ticket. About 252 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+106Precinct 160031 (Comanche County)persuadeStarting line Cole +19. 11.6% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 140304 (Cleveland County) carries the most.
Precinct 140304 (Cleveland County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 146. It sits at Cole +9 on our starting line, and 14.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 140315 (Cleveland County) is a turnout race.
Jacob's side leads Precinct 140315 (Cleveland County) by about 27 points on our starting line, and it cast about 252 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 20 votes there.
Precinct 620053 (Pontotoc County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 620053 (Pontotoc County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 23.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Cole had $2.60 million in cash on hand to Jacob's $4,166. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Jacob's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 358
- Slope
- 0.935
- R²
- 0.985
- Residual SD
- 3.7 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 36
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Jacob's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 28.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Jacob, with Cole, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 10 to 19Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 12,992 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 20 to 27Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 28 through October 31. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, and Oklahoma has no drop boxes. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 28 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 5,917 of them live where Jacob is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests are due by 5 p.m. on October 19, and the envelope must be notarized.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Oklahoma has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 9. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 37.0 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 33.2 points; Stitt carried the 2022 governor's race by 10.6 points.
- Jacob wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cole.
- In Precinct 140315 (Cleveland County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 23.3 points toward Jacob's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
3,743 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 71,436 dials to 23,812 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,258 at our published rates: 23,812 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Mitchell Jacob (D)
Public defender and University of Oklahoma College of Law graduate who served as a U.S. Army sergeant and cryptologic linguist, deploying to southern Syria in Operation Inherent Resolve. A fourth-generation Oklahoman from Tulsa, he lives in Newcastle with his wife and five children.
Cash on hand $4,166 and $65,289 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Tom Cole (R)
Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee since 2024 and U.S. representative since 2003, he is an enrolled Chickasaw Nation citizen and the longest-serving Native American in the history of the U.S. House. A former Oklahoma secretary of state and state senator, he holds a Yale M.A. and a University of Oklahoma Ph.D. in British history.
Cash on hand $2,599,733 and $3,827,891 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Rocco Bonacci (I)
Lawton resident and member of the Lawton Access Board.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Cole +29.7. Mitchell Jacob needs 66,984 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Mitchell Jacob win Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 14,438 net votes; the gap is 66,984. The rest would take a 23.3-point national shift.
Where are the votes Mitchell Jacob needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 140304 (Cleveland County), Precinct 140317 (Cleveland County), Precinct 620053 (Pontotoc County), Precinct 620016 (Pontotoc County), Precinct 620025 (Pontotoc County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Mitchell Jacob need to persuade?
About 6,496 voters who lean Tom Cole today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 12,992 persuadable voters leaning Tom Cole.
When does early voting start in Oklahoma in 2026?
Early in-person voting in Oklahoma runs October 28 through October 30, 2026 from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., and October 31 from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. The registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests are due by 5 p.m. on October 19, the envelope must be notarized, and mailed ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Oklahoma does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Oklahoma State Election Board returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Oklahoma State Election Board, elections
- MIT Election Data and Science Lab, 2024 precinct returns (built from State Election Board files)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Rocco Bonacci
- Wikipedia: Tom Cole