Nelson can win. The math closes using 50 percent of what history allows.

1. 01
   Precinct 090200 (Canadian County)

   Starting line Bice +16. 13.6% split their ticket.
   +246
2. 02
   Precinct 090507 (Canadian County)

   Starting line Bice +29. 13.9% split their ticket.
   +227
3. 03
   Precinct 550361 (Oklahoma County)

   Starting line Bice +6. 17.1% split their ticket.
   +218
4. 04
   Precinct 550334 (Oklahoma County)

   Starting line Bice +4. 12.5% split their ticket.
   +208
5. 05
   Precinct 550357 (Oklahoma County)

   Starting line Bice +18. 15.2% split their ticket.
   +202
6. 06
   Precinct 550452 (Oklahoma County)

   Starting line Bice +4. 13.9% split their ticket.
   +200

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  Ticket splitters and the 9 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 26,407 leaning Bice today.
  +13,320
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 17,477 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Nelson's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +1,326
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Nelson's way.
  +403

1. Nelson wins 25 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Bice.
2. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 50 percent of what recent Oklahoma results show is possible.
3. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  317 precincts, R² 0.992, 39 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -22,300 to 23,448 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Nelson $17,334 cash on hand; Bice $2,021,981.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  22,780 households, 68,341 dials, about 3,581 live conversations: an estimated $7,900 at published rates.