How Jena Nelson wins.
Bice starts 5.5 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Nelson needs 14,332 net votes, and the math closes using 50 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 090200 (Canadian County), Precinct 090507 (Canadian County) and Precinct 550361 (Oklahoma County).
Nelson can win. The math closes using 50 percent of what history allows.
130,419 votes.
That is half of the 260,837 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Nelson stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: Bice +5.5 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
14% today. 52% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. Ticket splitters and the 9 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 26,407 leaning Bice today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Nelson needs to win 25 percent of the ones now leaning Bice.
Who. At least 17,477 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Nelson's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Nelson's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 15,049 net votes against a gap of 14,332. That is a win.
12 precincts carry 16% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+246Precinct 090200 (Canadian County)persuadeStarting line Bice +16. 13.6% split their ticket.
- 02+227Precinct 090507 (Canadian County)persuadeStarting line Bice +29. 13.9% split their ticket.
- 03+218Precinct 550361 (Oklahoma County)persuadeStarting line Bice +6. 17.1% split their ticket.
- 04+208Precinct 550334 (Oklahoma County)persuadeStarting line Bice +4. 12.5% split their ticket.
- 05+202Precinct 550357 (Oklahoma County)persuadeStarting line Bice +18. 15.2% split their ticket.
- 06+200Precinct 550452 (Oklahoma County)persuadeStarting line Bice +4. 13.9% split their ticket.
- 07+199Precinct 550360 (Oklahoma County)persuadeStarting line Bice +17. 15.3% split their ticket.
- 08+195Precinct 550335 (Oklahoma County)persuadeStarting line Bice +18. 15.6% split their ticket.
- 09+195Precinct 090506 (Canadian County)persuadeStarting line Bice +32. 12.2% split their ticket.
- 10+194Precinct 090216 (Canadian County)persuadeStarting line Bice +26. 13.4% split their ticket.
- 11+193Precinct 550422 (Oklahoma County)persuadeStarting line Nelson +23. 15.3% split their ticket.
- 12+187Precinct 550450 (Oklahoma County)persuadeStarting line Bice +4. 15.2% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 090200 (Canadian County) carries the most.
Precinct 090200 (Canadian County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 246. It sits at Bice +16 on our starting line, and 13.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 550361 (Oklahoma County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 550361 (Oklahoma County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 17.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Bice had $2.02 million in cash on hand to Nelson's $17K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Nelson's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 317
- Slope
- 0.949
- R²
- 0.992
- Residual SD
- 2.8 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 39
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Nelson's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 28.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Nelson, with Bice, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 10 to 19Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 13,320 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 20 to 27Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 28 through October 31. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, and Oklahoma has no drop boxes. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 28 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 17,477 of them live where Nelson is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests are due by 5 p.m. on October 19, and the envelope must be notarized.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Oklahoma has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 9. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 21.4 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 17.7 points; Hofmeister carried the 2022 governor's race by 0.6 points.
- Nelson wins 25 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Bice.
- No national wave is required. The plan closes at 50 percent of what recent Oklahoma results show is possible.
- The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
3,581 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 68,341 dials to 22,780 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,900 at our published rates: 22,780 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Jena Nelson (D)
2020 Oklahoma Teacher of the Year and educator of more than 16 years who helped her students earn over $4 million in scholarships, she later served as acting executive director and director of programs for the Oklahoma Faith Network and is a nonprofit development professional and small business owner.
Cash on hand $17,334 and $449,421 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Stephanie Bice (R)
U.S. representative since 2021 and the first Iranian American elected to Congress, she serves on the Appropriations and House Administration committees. An Oklahoma City native and Oklahoma State marketing graduate, she served in the Oklahoma Senate from 2014 to 2020 after a business career in her family's technology company.
Cash on hand $2,021,981 and $1,943,507 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Robert P. Henri (I)
Edmond resident from a working-class background who founded Project Due Course, a platform of 18 government accountability reforms including congressional term limits and a ban on congressional stock trading.
Cash on hand $4,185 and $6,361 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Austin Nieves (I)
Oklahoma City entertainer and dancer running as an independent.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Bice +5.5. Jena Nelson needs 14,332 net votes. Odds 14% today, 52% with the plan.
Questions
Can Jena Nelson win Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District in 2026?
Yes, on the math. Jena Nelson needs 14,332 net votes, and recent Oklahoma results show about 29,833 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 50 percent of that.
Where are the votes Jena Nelson needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 090200 (Canadian County), Precinct 090507 (Canadian County), Precinct 550361 (Oklahoma County), Precinct 550334 (Oklahoma County), Precinct 550357 (Oklahoma County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Jena Nelson need to persuade?
About 6,660 voters who lean Stephanie Bice today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 25 percent of the 26,407 persuadable voters leaning Stephanie Bice.
When does early voting start in Oklahoma in 2026?
Early in-person voting in Oklahoma runs October 28 through October 30, 2026 from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., and October 31 from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. The registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests are due by 5 p.m. on October 19, the envelope must be notarized, and mailed ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Oklahoma does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Oklahoma State Election Board returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Oklahoma State Election Board, elections
- MIT Election Data and Science Lab, 2024 precinct returns (built from State Election Board files)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: GBAO (D) (2026-09-17 to 2026-09-20)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District election, 2026
- The Oklahoman: Oklahoma elections 2026 5th district jena nelson national democrat support race stephanie bice
- Wikipedia: Stephanie Bice