Upset Brief · Oklahoma U.S. Senate · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) vs. Kevin Hern (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.3-point national wave.

0%
odds today
3%
odds with the plan
341,950
net votes to find
Kevin Hern won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Oklahoma County
    Starting line Hern +1. 32,370 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 66,387 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +35,950
  2. 02
    Tulsa County
    Starting line Hern +14. 27,851 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 62,822 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +29,902
  3. 03
    Cleveland County
    Starting line Hern +10. 13,411 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 27,994 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +14,285
  4. 04
    Canadian County
    Starting line Hern +37. 7,547 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 22,848 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +7,736
  5. 05
    Rogers County
    Starting line Hern +50. 4,728 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 12,952 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +4,818
  6. 06
    Wagoner County
    Starting line Hern +46. 3,751 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 11,616 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,825

The top 12 counties carry 65% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    167,901 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Hern, plus the 19 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +167,901
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 34,514 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Thomas's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +4,296
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Thomas's way.
    +4,561

Plus a national shift of 14.3 points of margin (165,192 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Thomas wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Hern.
  2. In the precincts Thomas's side carries in Oklahoma County and Tulsa County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 14.3 points toward Thomas's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    1,972 precincts, R² 0.981, 191 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -288,259 to -30,896 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through the latest report
    Thomas $456 cash on hand; Hern $2,491,910.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    264,511 households, 793,532 dials, about 41,581 live conversations: an estimated $72,714 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $72,714 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Oklahoma races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.