Upset Brief · Oklahoma U.S. Senate · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) vs. Kevin Hern (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.3-point national wave.

0%
odds today
3%
odds with the plan
342,593
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 28
Where
  1. 01
    Oklahoma County
    Starting line Hern +1. 32,370 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 66,387 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +35,953
  2. 02
    Tulsa County
    Starting line Hern +14. 27,851 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 62,822 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +29,904
  3. 03
    Cleveland County
    Starting line Hern +10. 13,411 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 27,994 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +14,286
  4. 04
    Canadian County
    Starting line Hern +37. 7,547 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 22,848 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +7,737
  5. 05
    Rogers County
    Starting line Hern +50. 4,728 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 12,952 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +4,818
  6. 06
    Wagoner County
    Starting line Hern +46. 3,988 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 9,895 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +4,066

The top 12 counties carry 65% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 19 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 168,203 leaning Hern today.
    +168,203
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 34,514 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Thomas's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +4,300
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Thomas's way.
    +4,569

Plus a national shift of 14.3 points of margin (165,520 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Thomas wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Hern.
  2. In the precincts Thomas's side carries in Oklahoma County and Tulsa County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 14.3 points toward Thomas's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    1,972 precincts, R² 0.981, 191 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -288,813 to -30,979 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through August 5
    Thomas $456 cash on hand; Hern $2,491,910.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    264,943 households, 794,829 dials, about 41,649 live conversations: an estimated $72,833 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $72,833 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Oklahoma races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.