Oklahoma · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

What it would take for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas.

Hern starts 29.6 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Campaign work can move about 177,072 net votes toward Thomas, a 15.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 14.3-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Thomas the one standing if one comes.

342,593

net votes between Thomas and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 28.

29.6 pts

Hern lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Oklahoma races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.3-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan3%

Net votes to find342,593

WhereOklahoma County, Tulsa County, Cleveland County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Hern +29.6. N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas needs 342,593 net votes. Odds 0% today, 3% with the plan.

The number

578,127 votes.

That is half of the 1,156,252 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Thomas stands today, and what is missing:

388,233 N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas baseline

730,827 Kevin Hern baseline

Starting line: Hern +29.6 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. 3% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Thomas wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Thomas short by 169,314.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

168K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 168,203

Who. Ticket splitters and the 19 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 168,203 leaning Hern today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Thomas needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Hern.

Mobilize

4,300

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 34,514

Who. At least 34,514 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Thomas's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

4,569

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 13,054

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Thomas's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 177,072 net votes against a gap of 342,593. Still 165,521 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 14.3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 65% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Oklahoma Countypersuade
Starting line Hern +1. 32,370 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 66,387 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+35,953
02
Tulsa Countypersuade
Starting line Hern +14. 27,851 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 62,822 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+29,904
03
Cleveland Countypersuade
Starting line Hern +10. 13,411 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 27,994 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+14,286
04
Canadian Countypersuade
Starting line Hern +37. 7,547 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 22,848 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+7,737
05
Rogers Countypersuade
Starting line Hern +50. 4,728 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 12,952 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+4,818
06
Wagoner Countypersuade
Starting line Hern +46. 3,988 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 9,895 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+4,066
07
Comanche Countypersuade
Starting line Hern +23. 3,420 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 10,626 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+3,605
08
Payne Countypersuade
Starting line Hern +20. 3,325 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 7,132 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+3,484
09
Pottawatomie Countypersuade
Starting line Hern +41. 3,077 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 8,045 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+3,156
10
Creek Countypersuade
Starting line Hern +51. 3,001 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 8,954 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+3,062
11
Muskogee Countypersuade
Starting line Hern +31. 2,604 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 6,542 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,723
12
Grady Countypersuade
Starting line Hern +56. 2,575 persuadable voters leaning Hern; 7,452 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,614

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Oklahoma County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Oklahoma County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 35,953. It sits at Hern +1 on our starting line.

Tulsa County is a turnout race.

In the precincts Thomas's side carries in Tulsa County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 1,169 votes in this plan.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 177,072 net votes. The gap is 342,593. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 15.3 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Thomas's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 1,972
Slope: 0.940
R²: 0.981
Residual SD: 4.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 191

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Thomas's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 28.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Thomas, with Hern, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 10 to 19
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 168,203 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 20 to 27
Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 28 through October 31. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, and Oklahoma has no drop boxes. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 34,514 of them live where Thomas is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests are due by 5 p.m. on October 19, and the envelope must be notarized.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Oklahoma has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 9. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 34.3 points; Stitt carried the 2022 governor's race by 13.7 points; Lankford carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 32.2 points.

Thomas wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Hern.
In the precincts Thomas's side carries in Oklahoma County and Tulsa County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 14.3 points toward Thomas's side between now and November 3.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

41,649 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 794,829 dials to 264,943 households, before the last ballot is cast.

265K

households on the target list

795K

dials across three attempts

42K

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $72,833 at our published rates: 264,943 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D)

Ardmore native, Chickasaw Nation citizen and nurse who has also worked as a community health worker, and a military spouse and mother active in autism support and veterans advocacy. She won the Democratic nomination in her first campaign, taking 61.2% in the August runoff.

Cash on hand $456 and $57,159 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through August 5, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Kevin Hern (R)

U.S. representative for Oklahoma's 1st District since 2018 and a member of the Ways and Means Committee, he chaired the Republican Study Committee in the 118th Congress. An Arkansas Tech engineering graduate with an MBA from the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, he built a business owning 18 McDonald's franchises in the Tulsa area.

Cash on hand $2,491,910 and $9,953,579 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Sevier White (L)

Norman resident and longtime Libertarian Party candidate who was the party's nominee for Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District in 2016.

Also on the ballot

Ron Meinhardt (I)

Nowata resident and executive director of Entering Wedge Media, running as a grassroots constitutional conservative focused on congressional war powers, the cost of living and younger generations' economic future.

Cash on hand $162 and $8,713 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Curtis Stinnett (I)

Tulsa community pharmacist of 15 years who grew up in Lindsay and graduated from Southwestern Oklahoma State University; he is running a no-donations campaign centered on getting money out of politics and investing in energy infrastructure.

Campaign site ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Hern +29.6. N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas needs 342,593 net votes. Odds 0% today, 3% with the plan.

Questions

Can N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas win the U.S. Senate race in Oklahoma in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 177,072 net votes; the gap is 342,593. The rest would take a 14.3-point national shift.

Where are the votes N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Oklahoma County, Tulsa County, Cleveland County, Canadian County, Rogers County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas need to persuade?

About 84,102 voters who lean Kevin Hern today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 168,203 persuadable voters leaning Kevin Hern.

When does early voting start in Oklahoma in 2026?

Early in-person voting in Oklahoma runs October 28 through October 30, 2026 from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., and October 31 from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. The registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests are due by 5 p.m. on October 19, the envelope must be notarized, and mailed ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Oklahoma does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Oklahoma State Election Board precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Oklahoma State Election Board returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.