A long shot on the math: it takes a 57.3-point national wave.

1. 01
   South Side (Washington County)

   Starting line Burke +36. 0.8% split their ticket. About 737 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
   +96
2. 02
   Visitor's Center (Washington County)

   Starting line Harshbarger +38. 2.2% split their ticket.
   +25
3. 03
   Freedom Hall (Washington County)

   Starting line Harshbarger +27. 2.4% split their ticket.
   +24
4. 04
   Indian Trail North (Washington County)

   Starting line Harshbarger +32. 2.3% split their ticket.
   +22
5. 05
   Precinct 8A (Sullivan County)

   Starting line Harshbarger +59. 1.6% split their ticket.
   +22
6. 06
   Precinct 11A (Sullivan County)

   Starting line Harshbarger +38. 1.0% split their ticket.
   +20

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  931 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Harshbarger today.
  +931
• M
  Mobilize

  Few precincts give Burke's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +85
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +227

Plus a national shift of 57.3 points of margin (110,602 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Burke wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Harshbarger.
2. In South Side (Washington County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 57.3 points toward Burke's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  201 precincts, R² 0.983, 30 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -132,636 to -88,271 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through July 17

  Burke $14,106 cash on hand; Harshbarger $1,985,063.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  2,241 households, 6,722 dials, about 352 live conversations: an estimated $1,390 at published rates.