What it would take for Kristi Burke.
Harshbarger starts 57.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 1,243 net votes toward Burke, a 0.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 57.3-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Burke the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 57.3-point national wave.
96,553 votes.
That is half of the 193,104 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Burke stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024, Governor in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 931 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Harshbarger today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Burke needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Harshbarger.
Who. Few precincts give Burke's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 1,243 net votes against a gap of 111,844. Still 110,601 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 57.3 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 25% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+96South Side (Washington County)mobilizeStarting line Burke +36. 0.8% split their ticket. About 737 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+25Visitor's Center (Washington County)persuadeStarting line Harshbarger +38. 2.2% split their ticket.
- 03+24Freedom Hall (Washington County)persuadeStarting line Harshbarger +27. 2.4% split their ticket.
- 04+22Indian Trail North (Washington County)persuadeStarting line Harshbarger +32. 2.3% split their ticket.
- 05+22Precinct 8A (Sullivan County)persuadeStarting line Harshbarger +59. 1.6% split their ticket.
- 06+20Precinct 11A (Sullivan County)persuadeStarting line Harshbarger +38. 1.0% split their ticket.
- 07+19Woodland (Washington County)persuadeStarting line Harshbarger +40. 2.4% split their ticket.
- 08+18Carver (Washington County)persuadeStarting line Burke +4. 1.3% split their ticket.
- 09+189-1 Seymour Primary (Sevier County)persuadeStarting line Harshbarger +62. 1.3% split their ticket.
- 10+17Precinct 6A (Sullivan County)persuadeStarting line Harshbarger +63. 1.0% split their ticket.
- 11+17Precinct 2B (Sullivan County)persuadeStarting line Harshbarger +46. 1.6% split their ticket.
- 12+16White Pine (Jefferson County)persuadeStarting line Harshbarger +71. 1.5% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
South Side (Washington County) carries the most.
South Side (Washington County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 96. It sits at Burke +36 on our starting line, and 0.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
South Side (Washington County) is also the top turnout target.
Burke's side leads South Side (Washington County) by about 36 points on our starting line, and it cast about 737 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 85 votes there.
Freedom Hall (Washington County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Freedom Hall (Washington County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 2.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of July 17, 2026, Harshbarger had $1.99 million in cash on hand to Burke's $14K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Burke's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 201
- Slope
- 0.950
- R²
- 0.983
- Residual SD
- 2.0 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 30
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Burke's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 14.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Burke, with Harshbarger, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 13Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 931 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 14 to 29Bank the ballots
Early voting runs October 14 through October 29 at county election commissions and satellite sites, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 60 or older, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Requests must be received by October 24.
- October 30 to November 2Turn them out
The last push goes to every identified supporter who has not voted yet; few drop-off voters live where Burke is favored, so this is a chase, not a turnout drive. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county election commission by the close of polls on November 3; there is no postmark grace period and they cannot be dropped off by hand.
- November 3Election day
Polls close at 7 p.m. Central and 8 p.m. Eastern, and photo ID is required. Tennessee has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 57.8 points; Blackburn carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 58.1 points; Lee carried the 2022 governor's race by 58.2 points.
- Burke wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Harshbarger.
- In South Side (Washington County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 57.3 points toward Burke's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
352 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 6,722 dials to 2,241 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $1,390 at our published rates: 2,241 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Kristi Burke (D)
Chuckey artist and YouTuber who has worked as an independent muralist, in the beauty industry and as a local organizer, running on putting working families ahead of corporate interests.
Cash on hand $14,106 and $101,984 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.
Diana Harshbarger (R)
U.S. representative for the 1st District since 2021 and a licensed pharmacist and pharmacy business owner from Kingsport; she earned her undergraduate degree at East Tennessee State University and a doctorate in pharmacy from Mercer University and serves on the Energy and Commerce Committee.
Cash on hand $1,985,063 and $1,274,194 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.
Joshua Ray Ashburn (I)
Bristol father of two running as a first-time independent on term limits and putting people before party.
Chris Campbell (I)
Bristol resident and University of Tennessee, Knoxville graduate who has spent his professional career helping manufacturers stay competitive in the global economy.
Billy Cody (I)
Tyler Brice Mitchell McClain (I)
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Harshbarger +57.9. Kristi Burke needs 111,844 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Can Kristi Burke win Tennessee's 1st Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 1,243 net votes against a gap of 111,844; the rest would take a 57.3-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Kristi Burke needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: South Side (Washington County), Visitor's Center (Washington County), Freedom Hall (Washington County), Indian Trail North (Washington County), Precinct 8A (Sullivan County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Kristi Burke need to persuade?
About 466 voters who lean Diana Harshbarger today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 931 persuadable voters leaning Diana Harshbarger.
When does early voting start in Tennessee in 2026?
Early voting in Tennessee runs October 14 through October 29, 2026, with no excuse needed, at county election commission offices and satellite sites. The registration deadline is October 5. Voting by mail requires an excuse, for example being 60 or older or being away from the county for all of early voting and Election Day; requests must be received by October 24, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Photo ID is required to vote in person, and Tennessee does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Tennessee Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Tennessee Secretary of State, election results
- Tennessee Secretary of State, 2026 congressional redistricting
- U.S. Census Bureau, block equivalency files for the new congressional districts
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: Tennessee's 1st Congressional District election, 2026
- Wikipedia: Diana Harshbarger
- Ballotpedia: Kristi Burke
- Ballotpedia: Joshua Ray Ashburn
- Ballotpedia: Chris Campbell (Tennessee)