Upset Brief · TN-02 · Michaela Barnett (D) vs. Tim Burchett (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 31.7-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
69,274
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Fair Garden (Knox County)
    Starting line Barnett +56. About 702 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +137
  2. 02
    Dogwood (Knox County)
    Starting line Barnett +27. 1.1% split their ticket. About 1,315 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +131
  3. 03
    Central UMC (Knox County)
    Starting line Barnett +63. 1.8% split their ticket. About 409 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +103
  4. 04
    Larry Cox Sr Center 0013 (Knox County)
    Starting line Barnett +24. 1.5% split their ticket. About 853 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +82
  5. 05
    Green School (Knox County)
    Starting line Barnett +36. 0.5% split their ticket. About 582 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +75
  6. 06
    Thrive Lonsdale (Knox County)
    Starting line Barnett +34. 2.4% split their ticket. About 587 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +73

The top 12 precincts carry 35% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,009 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Burchett today.
    +1,009
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 13,461 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Barnett's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,371
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Barnett's way.
    +416

Plus a national shift of 31.7 points of margin (66,478 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Barnett wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Burchett.
  2. In Fair Garden (Knox County) and Dogwood (Knox County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 31.7 points toward Barnett's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    189 precincts, R² 0.996, 17 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -90,696 to -41,883 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 17
    Barnett $56,230 cash on hand; Burchett $967,447.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    11,501 households, 34,503 dials, about 1,808 live conversations: an estimated $5,132 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,132 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.