Tennessee · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Michaela Barnett.

Burchett starts 33.0 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 2,796 net votes toward Barnett, a 1.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 31.7-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Barnett the one standing if one comes.

69,274

net votes between Barnett and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 14.

33.0 pts

Burchett lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 31.7-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find69,274

WhereFair Garden (Knox County), Dogwood (Knox County), Central UMC (Knox County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Burchett +33.0. Michaela Barnett needs 69,274 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

104,928 votes.

That is half of the 209,854 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Barnett stands today, and what is missing:

68,614 Michaela Barnett baseline

137,888 Tim Burchett baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024, Governor in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Barnett wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Barnett short by 66,426.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

1,009

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,009

Who. 1,009 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Burchett today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Barnett needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Burchett.

Mobilize

1,371

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 13,461

Who. At least 13,461 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Barnett's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

416

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,189

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Barnett's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 2,796 net votes against a gap of 69,274. Still 66,478 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 31.7 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 35% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Fair Garden (Knox County)mobilize
Starting line Barnett +56. About 702 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+137
02
Dogwood (Knox County)mobilize
Starting line Barnett +27. 1.1% split their ticket. About 1,315 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+131
03
Central UMC (Knox County)mobilize
Starting line Barnett +63. 1.8% split their ticket. About 409 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+103
04
Larry Cox Sr Center 0013 (Knox County)mobilize
Starting line Barnett +24. 1.5% split their ticket. About 853 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+82
05
Green School (Knox County)mobilize
Starting line Barnett +36. 0.5% split their ticket. About 582 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+75
06
Thrive Lonsdale (Knox County)mobilize
Starting line Barnett +34. 2.4% split their ticket. About 587 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+73
07
Sarah Moore Greene (Knox County)mobilize
Starting line Barnett +48. About 418 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+71
08
Austin-East (Knox County)mobilize
Starting line Barnett +74. 2.5% split their ticket. About 246 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+67
09
Lincoln Park (Knox County)mobilize
Starting line Barnett +32. 3.0% split their ticket. About 508 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+64
10
Ywca (Knox County)mobilize
Starting line Barnett +41. About 430 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+63
11
South Knox CC (Knox County)mobilize
Starting line Barnett +13. 1.8% split their ticket. About 1,167 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+63
12
Bearden Elementary 0048 (Knox County)mobilize
Starting line Barnett +44. 1.2% split their ticket. About 331 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+56

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Fair Garden (Knox County) carries the most.

Fair Garden (Knox County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 137. It sits at Barnett +56 on our starting line.

Dogwood (Knox County) is a turnout target.

Barnett's side leads Dogwood (Knox County) by about 27 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,315 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 115 votes there.

Lincoln Park (Knox County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Lincoln Park (Knox County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 17, 2026, Burchett had $967K in cash on hand to Barnett's $56K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Barnett's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 189
Slope: 0.989
R²: 0.996
Residual SD: 1.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 17

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Barnett's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 14.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Barnett, with Burchett, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 13
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,009 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 14 to 29
Bank the ballots
Early voting runs October 14 through October 29 at county election commissions and satellite sites, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 60 or older, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Requests must be received by October 24.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 13,461 of them live where Barnett is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county election commission by the close of polls on November 3; there is no postmark grace period and they cannot be dropped off by hand.
November 3
Election day
Polls close at 7 p.m. Central and 8 p.m. Eastern, and photo ID is required. Tennessee has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 33.9 points; Blackburn carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 32.3 points; Lee carried the 2022 governor's race by 35.5 points.

Barnett wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Burchett.
In Fair Garden (Knox County) and Dogwood (Knox County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 31.7 points toward Barnett's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,808 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 34,503 dials to 11,501 households, before the last ballot is cast.

12K

households on the target list

35K

dials across three attempts

1,808

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,132 at our published rates: 11,501 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Michaela Barnett (D)

Knoxville engineer and small business owner who grew up doing barn chores and spent a year working in Congress; she is running on lowering gas, grocery and rent costs in East Tennessee.

Cash on hand $56,230 and $397,584 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Tim Burchett (R)

U.S. representative for the Knoxville-based 2nd District since 2019, previously Knox County mayor (2010 to 2018), state senator (1999 to 2010) and state representative (1995 to 1999). He serves on the Oversight, Transportation and Infrastructure, and Foreign Affairs committees.

Cash on hand $967,447 and $2,428,734 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Bruce Fine (I)

Thorn Hill farmer, marine mechanic and journalist with a bachelor's degree from the University of Florida, running on lowering the cost of living, protecting local clinics and hospitals, and fiscal responsibility.

Campaign site ›

Also on the ballot

Adam Heimerman (I)

Seventh-generation Tennessean raised in Loudon County and a Lenoir City High School graduate who has worked in the outdoor and camera industries and owns a small business.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Burchett +33.0. Michaela Barnett needs 69,274 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Michaela Barnett win Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 2,796 net votes against a gap of 69,274; the rest would take a 31.7-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes Michaela Barnett needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Fair Garden (Knox County), Dogwood (Knox County), Central UMC (Knox County), Larry Cox Sr Center 0013 (Knox County), Green School (Knox County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Michaela Barnett need to persuade?

About 504 voters who lean Tim Burchett today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,009 persuadable voters leaning Tim Burchett.

When does early voting start in Tennessee in 2026?

Early voting in Tennessee runs October 14 through October 29, 2026, with no excuse needed, at county election commission offices and satellite sites. The registration deadline is October 5. Voting by mail requires an excuse, for example being 60 or older or being away from the county for all of early voting and Election Day; requests must be received by October 24, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Photo ID is required to vote in person, and Tennessee does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Tennessee Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.