Upset Brief · TN-03 · Anna Golladay (D) vs. Chuck Fleischmann (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.4-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
74,594
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Dalewood (Hamilton County)
    Starting line Golladay +81. 2.2% split their ticket. About 674 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +203
  2. 02
    Alton Park (Hamilton County)
    Starting line Golladay +67. 2.7% split their ticket. About 799 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +188
  3. 03
    Bushtown (Hamilton County)
    Starting line Golladay +73. 2.8% split their ticket. About 655 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +179
  4. 04
    East Chattanooga (Hamilton County)
    Starting line Golladay +73. 1.7% split their ticket. About 637 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +167
  5. 05
    Woodmore (Hamilton County)
    Starting line Golladay +75. 1.1% split their ticket. About 567 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +154
  6. 06
    Ridgedale (Hamilton County)
    Starting line Golladay +58. 0.8% split their ticket. About 727 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +153

The top 12 precincts carry 48% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,014 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fleischmann today.
    +1,014
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 16,432 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Golladay's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,350
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Golladay's way.
    +419

Plus a national shift of 34.4 points of margin (70,811 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Golladay wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fleischmann.
  2. In Dalewood (Hamilton County) and Alton Park (Hamilton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 34.4 points toward Golladay's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    212 precincts, R² 0.997, 22 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -94,742 to -47,109 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 17
    Golladay $33,870 cash on hand; Fleischmann $4,835,525.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    13,563 households, 40,689 dials, about 2,132 live conversations: an estimated $5,715 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,715 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.