What it would take for Anna Golladay.
Fleischmann starts 36.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 3,783 net votes toward Golladay, a 1.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 34.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Golladay the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.4-point national wave.
102,831 votes.
That is half of the 205,661 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Golladay stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024, Governor in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 1,014 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fleischmann today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Golladay needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Fleischmann.
Who. At least 16,432 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Golladay's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Golladay's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 3,783 net votes against a gap of 74,594. Still 70,811 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 34.4 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 48% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+203Dalewood (Hamilton County)mobilizeStarting line Golladay +81. 2.2% split their ticket. About 674 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+188Alton Park (Hamilton County)mobilizeStarting line Golladay +67. 2.7% split their ticket. About 799 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+179Bushtown (Hamilton County)mobilizeStarting line Golladay +73. 2.8% split their ticket. About 655 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+167East Chattanooga (Hamilton County)mobilizeStarting line Golladay +73. 1.7% split their ticket. About 637 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+154Woodmore (Hamilton County)mobilizeStarting line Golladay +75. 1.1% split their ticket. About 567 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+153Ridgedale (Hamilton County)mobilizeStarting line Golladay +58. 0.8% split their ticket. About 727 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+146Bonny Oaks (Hamilton County)mobilizeStarting line Golladay +54. 1.0% split their ticket. About 746 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+136Eastgate (Hamilton County)mobilizeStarting line Golladay +57. 2.3% split their ticket. About 630 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+136Avondale (Hamilton County)mobilizeStarting line Golladay +78. 3.6% split their ticket. About 478 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+132Eastside (Hamilton County)mobilizeStarting line Golladay +40. 1.0% split their ticket. About 932 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 11+122Glenwood (Hamilton County)mobilizeStarting line Golladay +53. 2.3% split their ticket. About 608 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+112St. Elmo (Hamilton County)mobilizeStarting line Golladay +37. 1.2% split their ticket. About 803 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Dalewood (Hamilton County) carries the most.
Dalewood (Hamilton County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 203. It sits at Golladay +81 on our starting line, and 2.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Alton Park (Hamilton County) is a turnout target.
Golladay's side leads Alton Park (Hamilton County) by about 67 points on our starting line, and it cast about 799 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 177 votes there.
Bushtown (Hamilton County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Bushtown (Hamilton County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 2.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of July 17, 2026, Fleischmann had $4.84 million in cash on hand to Golladay's $34K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Golladay's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 212
- Slope
- 0.967
- R²
- 0.997
- Residual SD
- 1.9 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 22
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Golladay's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 14.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Golladay, with Fleischmann, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 13Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,014 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 14 to 29Bank the ballots
Early voting runs October 14 through October 29 at county election commissions and satellite sites, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 60 or older, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Requests must be received by October 24.
- October 30 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 16,432 of them live where Golladay is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county election commission by the close of polls on November 3; there is no postmark grace period and they cannot be dropped off by hand.
- November 3Election day
Polls close at 7 p.m. Central and 8 p.m. Eastern, and photo ID is required. Tennessee has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 35.7 points; Blackburn carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 35.4 points; Lee carried the 2022 governor's race by 40.0 points.
- Golladay wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fleischmann.
- In Dalewood (Hamilton County) and Alton Park (Hamilton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 34.4 points toward Golladay's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
2,132 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 40,689 dials to 13,563 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,715 at our published rates: 13,563 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Anna Golladay (D)
Chattanooga small business owner, progressive faith leader and neighborhood association vice president who served for years as a protest chaplain.
Cash on hand $33,870 and $55,555 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.
Chuck Fleischmann (R)
U.S. representative for the Chattanooga-based 3rd District since 2011 and a former Chattanooga attorney who ran a law firm with his wife and served as president of the Chattanooga Bar Association. He chairs the Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development and holds degrees from the University of Illinois and the University of Tennessee College of Law.
Cash on hand $4,835,525 and $2,330,803 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.
Jean Howard-Hill (I)
Chattanooga business executive with Howard-Hill Consultants who holds a bachelor's degree in urban planning and government from Wheaton College.
Rodney Joe King (I)
Powell resident and U.S. Navy veteran (1982 to 2006) who has worked as a CEO; he holds degrees from the University of Tennessee, Knoxville and East Tennessee State University.
Donnie Lynn Ownby (I)
Philadelphia, Tennessee, small business owner and U.S. Army veteran (1974 to 1977) with an associate degree from Roane State Community College.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Fleischmann +36.3. Anna Golladay needs 74,594 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Can Anna Golladay win Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 3,783 net votes against a gap of 74,594; the rest would take a 34.4-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Anna Golladay needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Dalewood (Hamilton County), Alton Park (Hamilton County), Bushtown (Hamilton County), East Chattanooga (Hamilton County), Woodmore (Hamilton County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Anna Golladay need to persuade?
About 507 voters who lean Chuck Fleischmann today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,014 persuadable voters leaning Chuck Fleischmann.
When does early voting start in Tennessee in 2026?
Early voting in Tennessee runs October 14 through October 29, 2026, with no excuse needed, at county election commission offices and satellite sites. The registration deadline is October 5. Voting by mail requires an excuse, for example being 60 or older or being away from the county for all of early voting and Election Day; requests must be received by October 24, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Photo ID is required to vote in person, and Tennessee does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Tennessee Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Tennessee Secretary of State, election results
- Tennessee Secretary of State, 2026 congressional redistricting
- U.S. Census Bureau, block equivalency files for the new congressional districts
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District election, 2026
- Wikipedia: Chuck Fleischmann
- Ballotpedia: Anna Golladay
- Ballotpedia: Jean Howard-Hill
- Ballotpedia: Donnie Ownby