Upset Brief · TN-05 · Chaz Molder (D) vs. Charlie Hatcher (R)

Molder can win. The plan uses 89 percent of what history allows.

4%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
18,268
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 09-04 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Molder +98. 3.4% split their ticket. About 949 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +443
  2. 02
    Precinct 09-09 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Molder +96. 3.2% split their ticket. About 927 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +437
  3. 03
    Precinct 09-03 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Molder +98. 4.7% split their ticket. About 943 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +419
  4. 04
    Precinct 07-01 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Molder +90. 3.5% split their ticket. About 1,029 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +413
  5. 05
    Precinct 09-06 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Molder +98. 3.9% split their ticket. About 893 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +404
  6. 06
    Precinct 07-06 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Molder +95. 1.9% split their ticket. About 838 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +391

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    13,131 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Hatcher, plus the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +11,694
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 33,333 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Molder's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +6,884
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Molder's way.
    +604
What has to be true
  1. Molder wins 45 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Hatcher.
  2. In Precinct 09-04 (Shelby County) and Precinct 09-03 (Shelby County), 31 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 89 percent of what recent Tennessee results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    222 precincts, R² 0.999, 36 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -17,942 to 19,995 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 17
    Molder $1,482,196 cash on hand; Hatcher $104,821.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    33,517 households, 100,551 dials, about 5,269 live conversations: an estimated $10,789 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $10,789 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.