Tennessee · U.S. House · District 5 · November 3, 2026

How Chaz Molder wins.

Hatcher starts 9.1 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Molder needs 18,268 net votes, and the plan uses 89 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 09-04 (Shelby County), Precinct 09-09 (Shelby County) and Precinct 09-03 (Shelby County).

18,268

net votes between Molder and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 14.

9.1 pts

Hatcher lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

Molder can win. The plan uses 89 percent of what history allows.

Odds today4%

Odds with the plan52%

Net votes to find18,268

WherePrecinct 09-04 (Shelby County), Precinct 09-09 (Shelby County), Precinct 09-03 (Shelby County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Hatcher +9.1. Chaz Molder needs 18,268 net votes. Odds 4% today, 52% with the plan.

The number

100,147 votes.

That is half of the 200,293 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Molder stands today, and what is missing:

89,151 Chaz Molder baseline

107,419 Charlie Hatcher baseline

Starting line: Hatcher +9.1 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

4% today. 52% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Molder wins in

52%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves89%

The plan on this page sits at 89%. Median outcome at this setting: Molder by 657.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

12K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 13,131

Who. 13,131 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Hatcher, plus the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Molder needs to win 45 percent of the ones now leaning Hatcher.

Mobilize

6,884

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 33,333

Who. At least 33,333 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Molder's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

604

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,938

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Molder's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 19,182 net votes against a gap of 18,268. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 25% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 09-04 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Molder +98. 3.4% split their ticket. About 949 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+443
02
Precinct 09-09 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Molder +96. 3.2% split their ticket. About 927 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+437
03
Precinct 09-03 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Molder +98. 4.7% split their ticket. About 943 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+419
04
Precinct 07-01 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Molder +90. 3.5% split their ticket. About 1,029 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+413
05
Precinct 09-06 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Molder +98. 3.9% split their ticket. About 893 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+404
06
Precinct 07-06 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Molder +95. 1.9% split their ticket. About 838 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+391
07
Precinct 06-05 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Molder +88. 3.0% split their ticket. About 972 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+387
08
Precinct 07-08 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Molder +86. 0.9% split their ticket. About 875 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+376
09
Precinct 11-1 (Williamson County)persuade
Starting line Hatcher +10. 1.4% split their ticket.
+375
10
Precinct 1-1 (Williamson County)persuade
Starting line Hatcher +32. 1.6% split their ticket.
+367
11
Precinct 3-1 (Williamson County)persuade
Starting line Hatcher +19.
+358
12
Precinct 08-05 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Molder +72. 1.3% split their ticket. About 998 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+335

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 09-04 (Shelby County) carries the most.

Precinct 09-04 (Shelby County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 443. It sits at Molder +98 on our starting line, and 3.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 09-03 (Shelby County) is a turnout target.

Molder's side leads Precinct 09-03 (Shelby County) by about 98 points on our starting line, and it cast about 943 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 314 votes there.

Molder has the cash edge.

As of July 17, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Molder had $1.48 million in cash on hand to Hatcher's $105K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Molder's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 222
Slope: 0.965
R²: 0.999
Residual SD: 1.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 36

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Molder's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 14.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Molder, with Hatcher, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 13
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 11,694 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 14 to 29
Bank the ballots
Early voting runs October 14 through October 29 at county election commissions and satellite sites, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 60 or older, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Requests must be received by October 24.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 33,333 of them live where Molder is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county election commission by the close of polls on November 3; there is no postmark grace period and they cannot be dropped off by hand.
November 3
Election day
Polls close at 7 p.m. Central and 8 p.m. Eastern, and photo ID is required. Tennessee has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 23.0 points; Blackburn carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 24.4 points; Lee carried the 2022 governor's race by 27.0 points.

Molder wins 45 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Hatcher.
In Precinct 09-04 (Shelby County) and Precinct 09-03 (Shelby County), 31 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan uses 89 percent of what recent Tennessee results show is possible.
The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

5,269 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 100,551 dials to 33,517 households, before the last ballot is cast.

34K

households on the target list

101K

dials across three attempts

5,269

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $10,789 at our published rates: 33,517 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Chaz Molder (D)

Mayor of Columbia since 2018, when he was elected as the youngest mayor in Tennessee at the time and the youngest in the city's history; re-elected in 2022, he is a practicing attorney.

Cash on hand $1,482,196 and $2,599,775 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Charlie Hatcher (R)

College Grove dairy farmer and veterinarian who served as Tennessee commissioner of agriculture (2019 to 2025) after a decade as state veterinarian, and has led national groups including the American Association of Bovine Practitioners and the U.S. Animal Health Association. He holds a Doctor of Veterinary Medicine from the University of Tennessee and a B.S. in animal science from Middle Tennessee State University.

Cash on hand $104,821 and $719,503 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

James A. Johnson (I)

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Micheal O'Leary (I)

Nashville small business owner who studied agricultural science at University College Dublin.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Hatcher +9.1. Chaz Molder needs 18,268 net votes. Odds 4% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Can Chaz Molder win Tennessee's 5th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Chaz Molder needs 18,268 net votes, and recent Tennessee results show about 21,538 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 89 percent of that.

Where are the votes Chaz Molder needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 09-04 (Shelby County), Precinct 09-09 (Shelby County), Precinct 09-03 (Shelby County), Precinct 07-01 (Shelby County), Precinct 09-06 (Shelby County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Chaz Molder need to persuade?

About 5,847 voters who lean Charlie Hatcher today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 45 percent of the 13,131 persuadable voters leaning Charlie Hatcher.

When does early voting start in Tennessee in 2026?

Early voting in Tennessee runs October 14 through October 29, 2026, with no excuse needed, at county election commission offices and satellite sites. The registration deadline is October 5. Voting by mail requires an excuse, for example being 60 or older or being away from the county for all of early voting and Election Day; requests must be received by October 24, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Photo ID is required to vote in person, and Tennessee does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Tennessee Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.