Upset Brief · TN-06 · Mike Croley (D) vs. Johnny Garrett (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.5-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
49,410
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 05-6 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Croley +66. 1.4% split their ticket. About 1,195 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +288
  2. 02
    Precinct 18-3 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Croley +56. 0.5% split their ticket. About 1,095 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +227
  3. 03
    Precinct 05-4 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Croley +62. About 891 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +193
  4. 04
    Precinct 06-8 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Croley +68. 1.3% split their ticket. About 722 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +188
  5. 05
    Precinct 09-2 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Croley +61. About 853 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +185
  6. 06
    Precinct 06-3 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Croley +71. 0.8% split their ticket. About 686 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +182

The top 12 precincts carry 33% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,107 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Garrett today.
    +1,107
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 34,223 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Croley's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +5,143
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Croley's way.
    +547

Plus a national shift of 20.5 points of margin (42,613 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Croley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Garrett.
  2. In Precinct 05-6 (Davidson County) and Precinct 18-3 (Davidson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 20.5 points toward Croley's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    271 precincts, R² 0.998, 32 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -66,682 to -18,661 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 17
    Croley $2,431 cash on hand; Garrett $287,585.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    26,220 households, 78,660 dials, about 4,122 live conversations: an estimated $8,768 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,768 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.