Tennessee · U.S. House · District 6 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Mike Croley.

Q: Can Mike Croley win Tennessee's 6th Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 6,797 net votes against a gap of 49,410; the rest would take a 20.5-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Q: Where are the votes Mike Croley needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 05-6 (Davidson County), Precinct 18-3 (Davidson County), Precinct 05-4 (Davidson County), Precinct 06-8 (Davidson County), Precinct 09-2 (Davidson County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Mike Croley need to persuade?

About 554 voters who lean Johnny Garrett today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,107 persuadable voters leaning Johnny Garrett.

Q: When does early voting start in Tennessee in 2026?

Early voting in Tennessee runs October 14 through October 29, 2026, with no excuse needed, at county election commission offices and satellite sites. The registration deadline is October 5. Voting by mail requires an excuse, for example being 60 or older or being away from the county for all of early voting and Election Day; requests must be received by October 24, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Photo ID is required to vote in person, and Tennessee does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Garrett starts 23.7 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,797 net votes toward Croley, a 3.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 20.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Croley the one standing if one comes.

49,410

net votes between Croley and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 14.

23.7 pts

Garrett lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.5-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find49,410

WherePrecinct 05-6 (Davidson County), Precinct 18-3 (Davidson County), Precinct 05-4 (Davidson County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Garrett +23.7. Mike Croley needs 49,410 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

104,183 votes.

That is half of the 208,365 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Croley stands today, and what is missing:

77,602 Mike Croley baseline

127,013 Johnny Garrett baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024, Governor in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Croley wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Croley short by 42,579.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

1,107

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,107

Who. 1,107 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Garrett today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Croley needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Garrett.

Mobilize

5,143

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 34,223

Who. At least 34,223 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Croley's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

547

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,562

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Croley's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 6,797 net votes against a gap of 49,410. Still 42,613 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 20.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 33% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 05-6 (Davidson County)mobilize
Starting line Croley +66. 1.4% split their ticket. About 1,195 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+288
02
Precinct 18-3 (Davidson County)mobilize
Starting line Croley +56. 0.5% split their ticket. About 1,095 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+227
03
Precinct 05-4 (Davidson County)mobilize
Starting line Croley +62. About 891 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+193
04
Precinct 06-8 (Davidson County)mobilize
Starting line Croley +68. 1.3% split their ticket. About 722 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+188
05
Precinct 09-2 (Davidson County)mobilize
Starting line Croley +61. About 853 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+185
06
Precinct 06-3 (Davidson County)mobilize
Starting line Croley +71. 0.8% split their ticket. About 686 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+182
07
Precinct 24-5 (Davidson County)mobilize
Starting line Croley +42. 0.7% split their ticket. About 1,152 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+181
08
Precinct 06-4 (Davidson County)mobilize
Starting line Croley +59. 1.0% split their ticket. About 807 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+177
09
Precinct 05-7 (Davidson County)mobilize
Starting line Croley +69. About 693 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+170
10
Precinct 21-4 (Davidson County)mobilize
Starting line Croley +71. 2.2% split their ticket. About 619 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+161
11
Precinct 07-5 (Davidson County)mobilize
Starting line Croley +60. 1.2% split their ticket. About 688 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+159
12
Precinct 17-7 (Davidson County)mobilize
Starting line Croley +48. 0.6% split their ticket. About 891 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+157

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 05-6 (Davidson County) carries the most.

Precinct 05-6 (Davidson County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 288. It sits at Croley +66 on our starting line, and 1.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 18-3 (Davidson County) is a turnout target.

Croley's side leads Precinct 18-3 (Davidson County) by about 56 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,095 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 211 votes there.

Precinct 21-4 (Davidson County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 21-4 (Davidson County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 2.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 17, 2026, Garrett had $288K in cash on hand to Croley's $2,431. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Croley's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 271
Slope: 0.988
R²: 0.998
Residual SD: 2.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 32

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Croley's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 14.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Croley, with Garrett, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 13
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,107 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 14 to 29
Bank the ballots
Early voting runs October 14 through October 29 at county election commissions and satellite sites, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 60 or older, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Requests must be received by October 24.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 34,223 of them live where Croley is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county election commission by the close of polls on November 3; there is no postmark grace period and they cannot be dropped off by hand.
November 3
Election day
Polls close at 7 p.m. Central and 8 p.m. Eastern, and photo ID is required. Tennessee has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 26.5 points; Blackburn carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 24.7 points; Lee carried the 2022 governor's race by 23.7 points.

Croley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Garrett.
In Precinct 05-6 (Davidson County) and Precinct 18-3 (Davidson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 20.5 points toward Croley's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

4,122 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 78,660 dials to 26,220 households, before the last ballot is cast.

26K

households on the target list

79K

dials across three attempts

4,122

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,768 at our published rates: 26,220 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Mike Croley (D)

Crossville Navy veteran (1999 to 2009), former park ranger and Presidential Management Fellow at NOAA who graduated from Vanderbilt University and earned a graduate degree from Tennessee Technological University.

Cash on hand $2,431 and $35,380 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Johnny Garrett (R)

Goodlettsville attorney who has represented the 45th District in the Tennessee House since 2019 and serves on its Finance, Ways and Means Committee. He holds a business degree from the University of Tennessee, Knoxville and a law degree from the Nashville School of Law.

Cash on hand $287,585 and $2,380,327 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Chris Monday (I)

Cookeville graphic designer and honors graduate of Cookeville High School running on defending individual liberties and reducing federal spending.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Angus Purdy (I)

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Garrett +23.7. Mike Croley needs 49,410 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Mike Croley win Tennessee's 6th Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 6,797 net votes against a gap of 49,410; the rest would take a 20.5-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes Mike Croley needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 05-6 (Davidson County), Precinct 18-3 (Davidson County), Precinct 05-4 (Davidson County), Precinct 06-8 (Davidson County), Precinct 09-2 (Davidson County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Mike Croley need to persuade?

About 554 voters who lean Johnny Garrett today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,107 persuadable voters leaning Johnny Garrett.

When does early voting start in Tennessee in 2026?

Early voting in Tennessee runs October 14 through October 29, 2026, with no excuse needed, at county election commission offices and satellite sites. The registration deadline is October 5. Voting by mail requires an excuse, for example being 60 or older or being away from the county for all of early voting and Election Day; requests must be received by October 24, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Photo ID is required to vote in person, and Tennessee does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Tennessee Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.