Upset Brief · TN-08 · Heidi Kuhn (D) vs. David Kustoff (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.7-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
48,279
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 06-01 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Kuhn +68. 1.9% split their ticket. About 1,058 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +256
  2. 02
    Precinct 05-05 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Kuhn +48. About 1,441 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +245
  3. 03
    Precinct 05-06 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Kuhn +49. About 1,119 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +191
  4. 04
    Precinct 05-03 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Kuhn +30. 0.9% split their ticket. About 1,743 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +190
  5. 05
    Precinct 06-06 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Kuhn +60. 2.7% split their ticket. About 732 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +166
  6. 06
    5-1 Macedonia (Madison County)
    Starting line Kuhn +79. 4.2% split their ticket. About 550 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +165

The top 12 precincts carry 41% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,180 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Kustoff today.
    +1,180
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 28,597 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kuhn's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,190
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kuhn's way.
    +504

Plus a national shift of 21.7 points of margin (43,405 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Kuhn wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Kustoff.
  2. In Precinct 06-01 (Shelby County) and Precinct 05-05 (Shelby County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 21.7 points toward Kuhn's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    223 precincts, R² 0.997, 43 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -66,848 to -20,064 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 17
    Kuhn $13,478 cash on hand; Kustoff $3,006,838.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    22,354 households, 67,063 dials, about 3,514 live conversations: an estimated $7,752 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,752 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.