What it would take for Heidi Kuhn.
Kustoff starts 24.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,874 net votes toward Kuhn, a 2.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 21.7-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Kuhn the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.7-point national wave.
100,071 votes.
That is half of the 200,140 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Kuhn stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024, Governor in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 1,180 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Kustoff today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Kuhn needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Kustoff.
Who. At least 28,597 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kuhn's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kuhn's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 4,874 net votes against a gap of 48,279. Still 43,405 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 21.7 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 41% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+256Precinct 06-01 (Shelby County)mobilizeStarting line Kuhn +68. 1.9% split their ticket. About 1,058 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+245Precinct 05-05 (Shelby County)mobilizeStarting line Kuhn +48. About 1,441 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+191Precinct 05-06 (Shelby County)mobilizeStarting line Kuhn +49. About 1,119 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+190Precinct 05-03 (Shelby County)mobilizeStarting line Kuhn +30. 0.9% split their ticket. About 1,743 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+166Precinct 06-06 (Shelby County)mobilizeStarting line Kuhn +60. 2.7% split their ticket. About 732 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+1655-1 Macedonia (Madison County)mobilizeStarting line Kuhn +79. 4.2% split their ticket. About 550 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+164Precinct 06-09 (Shelby County)mobilizeStarting line Kuhn +50. 0.8% split their ticket. About 934 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+147Precinct 12-02 (Shelby County)mobilizeStarting line Kuhn +57. 1.5% split their ticket. About 696 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+137Precinct 07-09 (Shelby County)mobilizeStarting line Kuhn +62. 2.8% split their ticket. About 595 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+125Precinct 01-11 (Shelby County)mobilizeStarting line Kuhn +35. 1.7% split their ticket. About 971 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 11+113Precinct 06-04 (Shelby County)mobilizeStarting line Kuhn +57. 1.6% split their ticket. About 541 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+113Precinct 05-09 (Shelby County)mobilizeStarting line Kuhn +21. About 1,448 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct 06-01 (Shelby County) carries the most.
Precinct 06-01 (Shelby County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 256. It sits at Kuhn +68 on our starting line, and 1.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 05-05 (Shelby County) is a turnout target.
Kuhn's side leads Precinct 05-05 (Shelby County) by about 48 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,441 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 233 votes there.
5-1 Macedonia (Madison County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, 5-1 Macedonia (Madison County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of July 17, 2026, Kustoff had $3.01 million in cash on hand to Kuhn's $13K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Kuhn's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 223
- Slope
- 0.995
- R²
- 0.997
- Residual SD
- 2.1 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 43
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Kuhn's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 14.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Kuhn, with Kustoff, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 13Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,180 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 14 to 29Bank the ballots
Early voting runs October 14 through October 29 at county election commissions and satellite sites, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 60 or older, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Requests must be received by October 24.
- October 30 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 28,597 of them live where Kuhn is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county election commission by the close of polls on November 3; there is no postmark grace period and they cannot be dropped off by hand.
- November 3Election day
Polls close at 7 p.m. Central and 8 p.m. Eastern, and photo ID is required. Tennessee has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 20.1 points; Blackburn carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 22.2 points; Lee carried the 2022 governor's race by 30.1 points.
- Kuhn wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Kustoff.
- In Precinct 06-01 (Shelby County) and Precinct 05-05 (Shelby County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 21.7 points toward Kuhn's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
3,514 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 67,063 dials to 22,354 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,752 at our published rates: 22,354 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Heidi Kuhn (D)
Shelby County Criminal Court clerk from 2018 to 2026 who earned a bachelor's degree from the University of New Mexico and a graduate degree from Christian Brothers University.
Cash on hand $13,478 and $39,805 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.
David Kustoff (R)
U.S. representative for the 8th District since 2017 and a former U.S. attorney for the Western District of Tennessee (2006 to 2008). He serves on the Ways and Means Committee and holds bachelor's and law degrees from the University of Memphis.
Cash on hand $3,006,838 and $2,135,874 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.
Adam D. Austill (I)
Covington resident, University of Memphis doctoral candidate in American literature and ABA therapist for children with autism.
Wendell "Wells" Blankenship (I)
Pamela Moses (I)
Memphis musician, organizer and human rights advocate who holds a bachelor's degree from the University of Tennessee and a graduate degree from Union University.
Horace Taylor (I)
Germantown independent who pledges to vote with constituents rather than along party lines.
Cash on hand $805 and $2,164 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Henry J. Ward III (I)
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Kustoff +24.1. Heidi Kuhn needs 48,279 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Heidi Kuhn win Tennessee's 8th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 4,874 net votes against a gap of 48,279; the rest would take a 21.7-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Heidi Kuhn needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 06-01 (Shelby County), Precinct 05-05 (Shelby County), Precinct 05-06 (Shelby County), Precinct 05-03 (Shelby County), Precinct 06-06 (Shelby County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Heidi Kuhn need to persuade?
About 590 voters who lean David Kustoff today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,180 persuadable voters leaning David Kustoff.
When does early voting start in Tennessee in 2026?
Early voting in Tennessee runs October 14 through October 29, 2026, with no excuse needed, at county election commission offices and satellite sites. The registration deadline is October 5. Voting by mail requires an excuse, for example being 60 or older or being away from the county for all of early voting and Election Day; requests must be received by October 24, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Photo ID is required to vote in person, and Tennessee does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Tennessee Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Tennessee Secretary of State, election results
- Tennessee Secretary of State, 2026 congressional redistricting
- U.S. Census Bureau, block equivalency files for the new congressional districts
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: Tennessee's 8th Congressional District election, 2026
- Wikipedia: David Kustoff
- Ballotpedia: Adam Austill
- Ballotpedia: Pamela Moses