Upset Brief · TN-09 · Justin J. Pearson (D) vs. Brent Taylor (R)

Pearson can win. The plan uses 47 percent of what history allows.

19%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
8,404
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 12-08 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Pearson +96. 2.4% split their ticket. About 1,458 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +589
  2. 02
    Precinct 11-06 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Pearson +94. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,274 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +492
  3. 03
    Precinct 09-07 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Pearson +99. 3.0% split their ticket. About 1,098 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +478
  4. 04
    Precinct 09-08 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Pearson +99. 3.3% split their ticket. About 998 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +429
  5. 05
    Precinct 10-03 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Pearson +96. 2.4% split their ticket. About 937 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +404
  6. 06
    Precinct 12-10 (Shelby County)
    Starting line Pearson +97. 1.6% split their ticket. About 1,024 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +403

The top 12 precincts carry 55% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    8,809 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Taylor, plus the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +4,099
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 34,070 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Pearson's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +4,404
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Pearson's way.
    +320
What has to be true
  1. Pearson wins 23 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Taylor.
  2. In Precinct 12-08 (Shelby County) and Precinct 11-06 (Shelby County), 16 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 47 percent of what recent Tennessee results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    232 precincts, R² 0.999, 45 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -15,776 to 16,770 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 17
    Pearson $844,733 cash on hand; Taylor $417,377.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    15,438 households, 46,314 dials, about 2,427 live conversations: an estimated $6,121 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,121 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.