Tennessee · U.S. House · District 9 · November 3, 2026

How Justin J. Pearson wins.

Taylor starts 4.3 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Pearson needs 8,404 net votes, and the plan uses 47 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 12-08 (Shelby County), Precinct 11-06 (Shelby County) and Precinct 09-07 (Shelby County).

8,404

net votes between Pearson and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 14.

4.4 pts

Taylor lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

Pearson can win. The plan uses 47 percent of what history allows.

Odds today19%

Odds with the plan52%

Net votes to find8,404

WherePrecinct 12-08 (Shelby County), Precinct 11-06 (Shelby County), Precinct 09-07 (Shelby County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Taylor +4.4. Justin J. Pearson needs 8,404 net votes. Odds 19% today, 52% with the plan.

The number

95,101 votes.

That is half of the 190,200 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Pearson stands today, and what is missing:

89,166 Justin J. Pearson baseline

97,570 Brent Taylor baseline

Starting line: Taylor +4.3 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

19% today. 52% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Pearson wins in

52%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

19%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves47%

The plan on this page sits at 47%. Median outcome at this setting: Pearson by 547.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

4,099

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 8,809

Who. 8,809 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Taylor, plus the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Pearson needs to win 23 percent of the ones now leaning Taylor.

Mobilize

4,404

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 34,070

Who. At least 34,070 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Pearson's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

320

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,967

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Pearson's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 8,823 net votes against a gap of 8,404. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 55% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 12-08 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Pearson +96. 2.4% split their ticket. About 1,458 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+589
02
Precinct 11-06 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Pearson +94. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,274 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+492
03
Precinct 09-07 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Pearson +99. 3.0% split their ticket. About 1,098 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+478
04
Precinct 09-08 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Pearson +99. 3.3% split their ticket. About 998 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+429
05
Precinct 10-03 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Pearson +96. 2.4% split their ticket. About 937 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+404
06
Precinct 12-10 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Pearson +97. 1.6% split their ticket. About 1,024 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+403
07
Precinct 11-07 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Pearson +95. 4.1% split their ticket. About 881 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+362
08
Precinct 09-05 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Pearson +98. 3.6% split their ticket. About 824 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+354
09
Precinct 10-04 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Pearson +99. 4.9% split their ticket. About 797 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+353
10
Precinct 10-09 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Pearson +97. 2.9% split their ticket. About 852 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+346
11
Precinct 09-11 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Pearson +99. 1.6% split their ticket. About 759 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+330
12
Precinct 10-07 (Shelby County)mobilize
Starting line Pearson +98. 3.6% split their ticket. About 768 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+323

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 12-08 (Shelby County) carries the most.

Precinct 12-08 (Shelby County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 589. It sits at Pearson +96 on our starting line, and 2.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 11-06 (Shelby County) is a turnout target.

Pearson's side leads Precinct 11-06 (Shelby County) by about 94 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,274 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 406 votes there.

Precinct 10-04 (Shelby County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 10-04 (Shelby County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Pearson has the cash edge.

As of July 17, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Pearson had $845K in cash on hand to Taylor's $417K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Pearson's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 232
Slope: 0.967
R²: 0.999
Residual SD: 1.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 45

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Pearson's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 14.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Pearson, with Taylor, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 13
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,099 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 14 to 29
Bank the ballots
Early voting runs October 14 through October 29 at county election commissions and satellite sites, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 60 or older, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Requests must be received by October 24.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 34,070 of them live where Pearson is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county election commission by the close of polls on November 3; there is no postmark grace period and they cannot be dropped off by hand.
November 3
Election day
Polls close at 7 p.m. Central and 8 p.m. Eastern, and photo ID is required. Tennessee has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 21.2 points; Blackburn carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 22.7 points; Lee carried the 2022 governor's race by 25.5 points.

Pearson wins 23 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Taylor.
In Precinct 12-08 (Shelby County) and Precinct 11-06 (Shelby County), 16 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan uses 47 percent of what recent Tennessee results show is possible.
The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

2,427 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 46,314 dials to 15,438 households, before the last ballot is cast.

15K

households on the target list

46K

dials across three attempts

2,427

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,121 at our published rates: 15,438 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Justin J. Pearson (D)

State representative for Memphis's 86th District since 2023, valedictorian of Mitchell High School and a 2017 Bowdoin College graduate. He co-founded Memphis Community Against Pollution, which helped stop the Byhalia Pipeline.

Cash on hand $844,733 and $2,344,947 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite

Brent Taylor (R)

State senator for the 31st District since 2023 and a funeral director from Eads with a degree in mortuary science from Northwest Mississippi Community College; he previously served on the Memphis City Council.

Cash on hand $417,377 and $1,549,482 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Dennis Clark (I)

Memphis independent whose family has held its land since before Tennessee statehood, running on gun rights, mental health services and education.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Michelle Davis Head (I)

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Taylor +4.4. Justin J. Pearson needs 8,404 net votes. Odds 19% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Can Justin J. Pearson win Tennessee's 9th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Justin J. Pearson needs 8,404 net votes, and recent Tennessee results show about 18,962 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 47 percent of that.

Where are the votes Justin J. Pearson needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 12-08 (Shelby County), Precinct 11-06 (Shelby County), Precinct 09-07 (Shelby County), Precinct 09-08 (Shelby County), Precinct 10-03 (Shelby County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Justin J. Pearson need to persuade?

About 2,050 voters who lean Brent Taylor today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 23 percent of the 8,809 persuadable voters leaning Brent Taylor.

When does early voting start in Tennessee in 2026?

Early voting in Tennessee runs October 14 through October 29, 2026, with no excuse needed, at county election commission offices and satellite sites. The registration deadline is October 5. Voting by mail requires an excuse, for example being 60 or older or being away from the county for all of early voting and Election Day; requests must be received by October 24, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Photo ID is required to vote in person, and Tennessee does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Tennessee Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.