Upset Brief · Tennessee U.S. Senate · Marquita Bradshaw (D) vs. Bill Hagerty (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.8-point national wave.

0%
odds today
1%
odds with the plan
403,753
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Shelby County
    Starting line Bradshaw +25. 13,733 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 127,206 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +32,508
  2. 02
    Davidson County
    Starting line Bradshaw +34. 11,541 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 114,011 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +26,563
  3. 03
    Knox County
    Starting line Hagerty +12. 8,275 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 95,408 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +10,372
  4. 04
    Hamilton County
    Starting line Hagerty +9. 6,616 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 74,807 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +9,725
  5. 05
    Williamson County
    Starting line Hagerty +26. 6,756 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 40,595 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +6,982
  6. 06
    Rutherford County
    Starting line Hagerty +16. 4,731 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 73,079 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +5,414

The top 12 counties carry 69% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    115,743 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Hagerty, plus the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +115,743
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 240,055 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Bradshaw's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +38,392
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Bradshaw's way.
    +4,705

Plus a national shift of 13.8 points of margin (244,914 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Bradshaw wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Hagerty.
  2. In the precincts Bradshaw's side carries in Shelby County and Davidson County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 13.8 points toward Bradshaw's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    1,940 precincts, R² 0.997, 339 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -408,265 to -78,268 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 17
    Bradshaw $1,043 cash on hand; Hagerty $5,234,429.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    334,638 households, 1,003,915 dials, about 52,605 live conversations: an estimated $91,992 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $91,992 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.