Tennessee · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Marquita Bradshaw.

Hagerty starts 22.7 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Campaign work can move about 158,840 net votes toward Bradshaw, an 8.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 13.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Bradshaw the one standing if one comes.

403,753

net votes between Bradshaw and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 14.

22.7 pts

Hagerty lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.8-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan1%

Net votes to find403,753

WhereShelby County, Davidson County, Knox County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Hagerty +22.7. Marquita Bradshaw needs 403,753 net votes. Odds 0% today, 1% with the plan.

The number

888,258 votes.

That is half of the 1,776,515 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Bradshaw stands today, and what is missing:

670,442 Marquita Bradshaw baseline

1,074,195 Bill Hagerty baseline

Starting line: Hagerty +22.7 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Bradshaw wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Bradshaw short by 246,710.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

116K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 115,743

Who. 115,743 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Hagerty, plus the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Bradshaw needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Hagerty.

Mobilize

38K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 240,055

Who. At least 240,055 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Bradshaw's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

4,705

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 13,442

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Bradshaw's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 158,840 net votes against a gap of 403,753. Still 244,913 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 13.8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 69% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Shelby Countymobilize
Starting line Bradshaw +25. 13,733 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 127,206 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+32,508
02
Davidson Countymobilize
Starting line Bradshaw +34. 11,541 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 114,011 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+26,563
03
Knox Countypersuade
Starting line Hagerty +12. 8,275 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 95,408 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+10,372
04
Hamilton Countypersuade
Starting line Hagerty +9. 6,616 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 74,807 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+9,725
05
Williamson Countypersuade
Starting line Hagerty +26. 6,756 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 40,595 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+6,982
06
Rutherford Countypersuade
Starting line Hagerty +16. 4,731 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 73,079 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+5,414
07
Sumner Countypersuade
Starting line Hagerty +36. 3,356 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 45,616 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+3,463
08
Montgomery Countypersuade
Starting line Hagerty +14. 2,651 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 40,727 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+3,091
09
Wilson Countypersuade
Starting line Hagerty +34. 2,819 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 36,987 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,907
10
Sullivan Countypersuade
Starting line Hagerty +49. 2,718 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 33,635 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,768
11
Blount Countypersuade
Starting line Hagerty +41. 2,549 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 29,874 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,658
12
Washington Countypersuade
Starting line Hagerty +33. 2,341 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 26,495 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,518

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Shelby County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Shelby County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 32,508. It sits at Bradshaw +25 on our starting line.

Davidson County is a turnout target.

In the precincts Bradshaw's side carries in Davidson County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 14,084 votes in this plan.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 17, 2026, Hagerty had $5.23 million in cash on hand to Bradshaw's $1,043. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 158,840 net votes. The gap is 403,753. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 8.9 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Bradshaw's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 1,940
Slope: 0.979
R²: 0.997
Residual SD: 2.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 339

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Bradshaw's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 14.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Bradshaw, with Hagerty, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 13
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 115,743 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 14 to 29
Bank the ballots
Early voting runs October 14 through October 29 at county election commissions and satellite sites, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 60 or older, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Requests must be received by October 24.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 240,055 of them live where Bradshaw is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county election commission by the close of polls on November 3; there is no postmark grace period and they cannot be dropped off by hand.
November 3
Election day
Polls close at 7 p.m. Central and 8 p.m. Eastern, and photo ID is required. Tennessee has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 29.7 points; Blackburn carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 29.6 points; Lee carried the 2022 governor's race by 32.0 points.

Bradshaw wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Hagerty.
In the precincts Bradshaw's side carries in Shelby County and Davidson County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 13.8 points toward Bradshaw's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

52,605 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 1,003,915 dials to 334,638 households, before the last ballot is cast.

335K

households on the target list

1,004K

dials across three attempts

53K

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $91,992 at our published rates: 334,638 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Marquita Bradshaw (D)

Memphis environmental justice advocate and community organizer who has served as environmental justice chair of the Sierra Club's Tennessee chapter and founded the civic engagement group Sowing Justice. She is a Central High School and University of Memphis graduate.

Cash on hand $1,043 and $2,257 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Bill Hagerty (R)

U.S. senator since 2021 and U.S. ambassador to Japan from 2017 to 2019, he earlier served as Tennessee's commissioner of economic and community development (2011 to 2014) and co-founded the private equity firm Hagerty Peterson & Company. He holds bachelor's and law degrees from Vanderbilt University.

Cash on hand $5,234,429 and $7,162,897 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 17, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Tharon Chandler (I)

Lawrenceburg native and Memphis State University graduate (1994) who served in the U.S. Army in 1991 and has worked as a journalist, economist, Christian missionary and conservationist.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Andrew Gerena (I)

Knoxville technician with an associate degree from Bryant & Stratton College whose work history spans military service, security, commercial trucking, information technology and scientific research.

Campaign site ›

Also on the ballot

Jeremy Dean Hearn (I)

Campaign site ›

Also on the ballot

Robert Jones (I)

Jonesborough historian, educator and business owner who holds a Ph.D. in classics from the University of Newcastle (2020), a graduate degree from Austin Peay State University and a bachelor's degree from East Tennessee State University. He also directs a farm-animal sanctuary and has helped build veterinary practices with his wife.

Cash on hand $680 and $0 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

James Macon III (I)

Memphis business strategist with more than 25 years of Fortune 500 leadership experience, currently a senior director at Stryker after roles at Medtronic and Wright Medical. He holds graduate degrees from Northern Illinois University and the University of Tennessee and served in the Air National Guard.

Also on the ballot

Yoshi Matthews (I)

Goodlettsville nonprofit founder running as an independent.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

David Sutman Jr. (I)

Gray truck driver and self-described working-class political outsider running on accountability and transparency in Washington.

Cash on hand $500 and $9,149 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Catherine Whitson (I)

Chattanooga resident of 40 years who built a career in the insurance industry before spending two decades volunteering as a life coach, pastor and mentor.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Hagerty +22.7. Marquita Bradshaw needs 403,753 net votes. Odds 0% today, 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Marquita Bradshaw win the U.S. Senate race in Tennessee in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 158,840 net votes against a gap of 403,753; the rest would take a 13.8-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes Marquita Bradshaw needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Shelby County, Davidson County, Knox County, Hamilton County, Williamson County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Marquita Bradshaw need to persuade?

About 57,872 voters who lean Bill Hagerty today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 115,743 persuadable voters leaning Bill Hagerty.

When does early voting start in Tennessee in 2026?

Early voting in Tennessee runs October 14 through October 29, 2026, with no excuse needed, at county election commission offices and satellite sites. The registration deadline is October 5. Voting by mail requires an excuse, for example being 60 or older or being away from the county for all of early voting and Election Day; requests must be received by October 24, and mailed ballots must arrive by the close of polls on November 3. Photo ID is required to vote in person, and Tennessee does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Tennessee Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.