Upset Brief · TX-15 · Monica De La Cruz (R) vs. Bobby Pulido (D)

De La Cruz can win. The plan uses 74 percent of what history allows.

18%
odds today
51%
odds with the plan
7,158
net votes to find
Bobby Pulido won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 90 (Hidalgo County)
    Starting line Pulido +47. 9.7% split their ticket.
    +122
  2. 02
    Precinct 113 (Hidalgo County)
    Starting line Pulido +19. 6.2% split their ticket.
    +100
  3. 03
    Precinct 114 (Hidalgo County)
    Starting line Pulido +10. 4.5% split their ticket.
    +98
  4. 04
    Precinct 20 (Hidalgo County)
    Starting line Pulido +18. 7.8% split their ticket.
    +96
  5. 05
    Precinct 151 (Hidalgo County)
    Starting line Pulido +26. 4.2% split their ticket.
    +96
  6. 06
    Precinct 16 (Hidalgo County)
    Starting line Pulido +46. 12.7% split their ticket.
    +95

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,553 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Pulido, plus the 5 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +5,572
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 14,706 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where De La Cruz's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,546
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean De La Cruz's way.
    +397
What has to be true
  1. De La Cruz wins 37 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Pulido.
  2. In Precinct 1 (Aransas County) and Precinct 1A (Aransas County), 26 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 74 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    280 precincts, R² 0.988, 46 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -12,991 to 13,744 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    De La Cruz $2,463,323 cash on hand; Pulido $1,155,936.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    14,594 households, 43,782 dials, about 2,294 live conversations: an estimated $6,150 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,150 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.