How Monica De La Cruz wins.
Pulido starts 4.5 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. De La Cruz needs 7,158 net votes, and the math closes using 74 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 90 (Hidalgo County), Precinct 113 (Hidalgo County) and Precinct 114 (Hidalgo County).
De La Cruz can win. The math closes using 74 percent of what history allows.
78,718 votes.
That is half of the 157,434 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where De La Cruz stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: Pulido +4.5 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
18% today. 51% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. Ticket splitters and the 5 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 7,553 leaning Pulido today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. De La Cruz needs to win 37 percent of the ones now leaning Pulido.
Who. At least 14,706 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where De La Cruz's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean De La Cruz's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 7,515 net votes against a gap of 7,158. That is a win.
12 precincts carry 15% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+122Precinct 90 (Hidalgo County)persuadeStarting line Pulido +47. 9.7% split their ticket.
- 02+100Precinct 113 (Hidalgo County)persuadeStarting line Pulido +19. 6.2% split their ticket.
- 03+98Precinct 114 (Hidalgo County)persuadeStarting line Pulido +10. 4.5% split their ticket.
- 04+96Precinct 20 (Hidalgo County)persuadeStarting line Pulido +18. 7.8% split their ticket.
- 05+96Precinct 151 (Hidalgo County)persuadeStarting line Pulido +26. 4.2% split their ticket.
- 06+95Precinct 16 (Hidalgo County)persuadeStarting line Pulido +46. 12.7% split their ticket.
- 07+94Precinct 30 (Hidalgo County)persuadeStarting line Pulido +30. 6.7% split their ticket.
- 08+83Precinct 1A (Aransas County)mobilizeStarting line De La Cruz +48. 3.4% split their ticket. About 319 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+82Precinct 13 (Hidalgo County)persuadeStarting line Pulido +32. 4.1% split their ticket.
- 10+81Precinct 58 (Hidalgo County)persuadeStarting line Pulido +24. 6.6% split their ticket.
- 11+80Precinct 52 (Hidalgo County)persuadeStarting line Pulido +18. 5.3% split their ticket.
- 12+79Precinct 1 (Aransas County)mobilizeStarting line De La Cruz +49. 3.3% split their ticket. About 447 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct 90 (Hidalgo County) carries the most.
Precinct 90 (Hidalgo County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 122. It sits at Pulido +47 on our starting line, and 9.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 1 (Aransas County) is a turnout race.
De La Cruz's side leads Precinct 1 (Aransas County) by about 49 points on our starting line, and it cast about 447 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 73 votes there.
Precinct 16 (Hidalgo County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 16 (Hidalgo County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 12.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
De La Cruz has the cash edge.
As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, De La Cruz had $2.46 million in cash on hand to Pulido's $1.16 million. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where De La Cruz's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 280
- Slope
- 1.090
- R²
- 0.988
- Residual SD
- 3.3 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 46
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: De La Cruz's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 19.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with De La Cruz, with Pulido, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,572 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 19 to 25Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 14,706 of them live where De La Cruz is favored. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 17.9 points; Cruz carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 9.4 points; Abbott carried the 2022 governor's race by 6.2 points.
- De La Cruz wins 37 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Pulido.
- In Precinct 1 (Aransas County) and Precinct 1A (Aransas County), 26 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- No national wave is required. The plan closes at 74 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
- The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
2,294 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 43,782 dials to 14,594 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,150 at our published rates: 14,594 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Monica De La Cruz (R)
U.S. representative for the 15th District since 2023; a Brownsville-born business owner and insurance agent with a business administration degree from the University of Texas at San Antonio.
Cash on hand $2,463,323 and $5,273,960 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Bobby Pulido (D)
Edinburg-born Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy Award winner who is also a small business owner.
Cash on hand $1,155,936 and $2,960,462 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Pulido +4.5. Monica De La Cruz needs 7,158 net votes. Odds 18% today, 51% with the plan.
Questions
Can Monica De La Cruz win Texas's 15th Congressional District in 2026?
Yes, on the math. Monica De La Cruz needs 7,158 net votes, and recent Texas results show about 10,188 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 74 percent of that.
Where are the votes Monica De La Cruz needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 90 (Hidalgo County), Precinct 113 (Hidalgo County), Precinct 114 (Hidalgo County), Precinct 20 (Hidalgo County), Precinct 151 (Hidalgo County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Monica De La Cruz need to persuade?
About 2,786 voters who lean Bobby Pulido today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 37 percent of the 7,553 persuadable voters leaning Bobby Pulido.
When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?
In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Texas Secretary of State, election results
- Texas Legislative Council redistricting (PLANC2333)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, Texas Southern University (2026-08-18 to 2026-08-22)
- Poll: Normington Petts and Associates (2026-07-23 to 2026-07-27)
- Poll: Applecart (2026-05-18 to 2026-05-25)
- Poll: Public Policy Polling (2025-09-10 to 2025-09-11)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Texas's 15th congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Monica De La Cruz
- Ballotpedia: Bobby Pulido
- Roll Call: In South Texas, Bobby Pulido urges voters to see beyond red and blue