Upset Brief · TX-19 · Kyle Rable (D) vs. Tom Sell (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 50.8-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
102,579
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 8 (Lubbock County)
    Starting line Rable +13. 3.9% split their ticket. About 898 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +54
  2. 02
    Precinct 6 (Lubbock County)
    Starting line Rable +66. 3.1% split their ticket. About 208 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +53
  3. 03
    Precinct 402 (Taylor County)
    Starting line Sell +33. 6.4% split their ticket.
    +52
  4. 04
    Precinct 20 (Lubbock County)
    Starting line Rable +72. 3.8% split their ticket. About 182 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +52
  5. 05
    Precinct 153 (Lubbock County)
    Starting line Rable +50. 3.1% split their ticket. About 255 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +49
  6. 06
    Precinct 306 (Taylor County)
    Starting line Sell +60. 3.1% split their ticket.
    +44

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,682 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Sell today.
    +2,682
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 2,709 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rable's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +261
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rable's way.
    +365

Plus a national shift of 50.8 points of margin (99,270 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Rable wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Sell.
  2. In Precinct 6 (Lubbock County) and Precinct 20 (Lubbock County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 50.8 points toward Rable's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    381 precincts, R² 0.991, 75 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -122,074 to -76,677 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Rable $7,631 cash on hand; Sell $384,766.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    6,291 households, 18,872 dials, about 989 live conversations: an estimated $3,276 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $3,276 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.