Texas · U.S. House · District 19 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Kyle Rable.

Sell starts 52.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 3,308 net votes toward Rable, a 1.7-point gain. Winning outright would take a 50.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Rable the one standing if one comes.

102,579

net votes between Rable and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

52.5 pts

Sell lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Texas races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 50.8-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find102,579

WherePrecinct 8 (Lubbock County), Precinct 6 (Lubbock County), Precinct 402 (Taylor County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Sell +52.5. Kyle Rable needs 102,579 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

97,676 votes.

That is half of the 195,351 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Rable stands today, and what is missing:

44,342 Kyle Rable baseline

146,920 Tom Sell baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Railroad Commissioner, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Rable wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Rable short by 99,437.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

2,682

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,682

Who. 2,682 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Sell today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Rable needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Sell.

Mobilize

261

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,709

Who. At least 2,709 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rable's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

365

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,044

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rable's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 3,308 net votes against a gap of 102,579. Still 99,271 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 50.8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 17% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 8 (Lubbock County)mobilize
Starting line Rable +13. 3.9% split their ticket. About 898 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+54
02
Precinct 6 (Lubbock County)mobilize
Starting line Rable +66. 3.1% split their ticket. About 208 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+53
03
Precinct 402 (Taylor County)persuade
Starting line Sell +33. 6.4% split their ticket.
+52
04
Precinct 20 (Lubbock County)mobilize
Starting line Rable +72. 3.8% split their ticket. About 182 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+52
05
Precinct 153 (Lubbock County)mobilize
Starting line Rable +50. 3.1% split their ticket. About 255 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+49
06
Precinct 306 (Taylor County)persuade
Starting line Sell +60. 3.1% split their ticket.
+44
07
Precinct 3 (Lubbock County)mobilize
Starting line Rable +25. 2.0% split their ticket. About 438 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+44
08
Precinct 104 (Taylor County)persuade
Starting line Sell +50. 5.2% split their ticket.
+43
09
Precinct 406 (Taylor County)persuade
Starting line Sell +44. 4.3% split their ticket.
+42
10
Precinct 54 (Lubbock County)persuade
Starting line Sell +52. 4.0% split their ticket.
+42
11
Precinct 66 (Lubbock County)persuade
Starting line Sell +54. 4.6% split their ticket.
+38
12
Precinct 110 (Lubbock County)persuade
Starting line Sell +61. 2.8% split their ticket.
+38

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 8 (Lubbock County) carries the most.

Precinct 8 (Lubbock County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 54. It sits at Rable +13 on our starting line, and 3.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 6 (Lubbock County) is a turnout race.

Rable's side leads Precinct 6 (Lubbock County) by about 66 points on our starting line, and it cast about 208 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 46 votes there.

Precinct 402 (Taylor County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 402 (Taylor County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 6.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Sell had $385K in cash on hand to Rable's $7,631. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Rable's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 381
Slope: 1.015
R²: 0.991
Residual SD: 2.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 75

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Rable's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Rable, with Sell, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 2,682 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 2,709 of them live where Rable is favored. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 51.7 points; Cruz carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 48.3 points; Abbott carried the 2022 governor's race by 54.5 points.

Rable wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Sell.
In Precinct 6 (Lubbock County) and Precinct 20 (Lubbock County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 50.8 points toward Rable's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

989 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 18,872 dials to 6,291 households, before the last ballot is cast.

6,291

households on the target list

19K

dials across three attempts

989

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $3,276 at our published rates: 6,291 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Kyle Rable (D)

Former secretary of the Lubbock County Democratic Party and a U.S. Army Reserve captain. A Texas Tech University PhD candidate with a bachelor's degree from the University of Toledo and a master's degree from Bowling Green State University.

Cash on hand $7,631 and $31,276 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Tom Sell (R)

Attorney with a bachelor's degree and J.D. from Texas Tech University who worked for former Rep. Larry Combest, served as deputy staff director of the House Agriculture Committee, and co-founded a firm with Combest.

Cash on hand $384,766 and $2,143,025 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Sell +52.5. Kyle Rable needs 102,579 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Kyle Rable win Texas's 19th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 3,308 net votes; the gap is 102,579. The rest would take a 50.8-point national shift.

Where are the votes Kyle Rable needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 8 (Lubbock County), Precinct 6 (Lubbock County), Precinct 402 (Taylor County), Precinct 20 (Lubbock County), Precinct 153 (Lubbock County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Kyle Rable need to persuade?

About 1,341 voters who lean Tom Sell today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 2,682 persuadable voters leaning Tom Sell.

When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?

In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.