Upset Brief · TX-02 · Shaun Finnie (D) vs. Steve Toth (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.0-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
55,482
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 1170 (Harris County)
    Starting line Finnie +24. 2.2% split their ticket. About 2,138 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +188
  2. 02
    Precinct 388 (Harris County)
    Starting line Finnie +36. 2.5% split their ticket. About 599 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +92
  3. 03
    Precinct 61 (Montgomery County)
    Starting line Toth +19. 5.6% split their ticket.
    +89
  4. 04
    Precinct 78 (Montgomery County)
    Starting line Toth +31. 5.5% split their ticket.
    +89
  5. 05
    Precinct 964 (Harris County)
    Starting line Finnie +17. 2.6% split their ticket. About 1,024 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +74
  6. 06
    Precinct 1145 (Harris County)
    Starting line Toth +28. 6.5% split their ticket.
    +72

The top 12 precincts carry 19% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,000 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Toth today.
    +4,000
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 6,346 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Finnie's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +482
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Finnie's way.
    +695

Plus a national shift of 21 points of margin (50,304 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Finnie wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Toth.
  2. In Precinct 1170 (Harris County) and Precinct 388 (Harris County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 21.0 points toward Finnie's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    157 precincts, R² 0.992, 27 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -77,963 to -22,182 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Finnie $1,469,201 cash on hand; Toth $152,935.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    11,269 households, 33,807 dials, about 1,771 live conversations: an estimated $5,028 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,028 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.