What it would take for Shaun Finnie.
Toth starts 23.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 5,177 net votes toward Finnie, a 2.2-point gain. Winning outright would take a 21.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Finnie the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.0-point national wave.
119,804 votes.
That is half of the 239,606 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Finnie stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Railroad Commissioner, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 4,000 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Toth today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Finnie needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Toth.
Who. At least 6,346 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Finnie's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Finnie's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 5,177 net votes against a gap of 55,482. Still 50,305 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 21 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 19% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+188Precinct 1170 (Harris County)mobilizeStarting line Finnie +24. 2.2% split their ticket. About 2,138 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+92Precinct 388 (Harris County)mobilizeStarting line Finnie +36. 2.5% split their ticket. About 599 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+89Precinct 61 (Montgomery County)persuadeStarting line Toth +19. 5.6% split their ticket.
- 04+89Precinct 78 (Montgomery County)persuadeStarting line Toth +31. 5.5% split their ticket.
- 05+74Precinct 964 (Harris County)mobilizeStarting line Finnie +17. 2.6% split their ticket. About 1,024 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+72Precinct 1145 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Toth +28. 6.5% split their ticket.
- 07+72Precinct 6 (Montgomery County)persuadeStarting line Toth +32. 6.0% split their ticket.
- 08+67Precinct 33 (Montgomery County)persuadeStarting line Toth +32. 5.5% split their ticket.
- 09+65Precinct 71 (Montgomery County)persuadeStarting line Toth +28. 4.1% split their ticket.
- 10+64Precinct 31 (Montgomery County)persuadeStarting line Toth +34. 4.1% split their ticket.
- 11+62Precinct 100 (Montgomery County)persuadeStarting line Toth +30. 3.6% split their ticket.
- 12+60Precinct 496 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Finnie +19. 7.2% split their ticket. About 434 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct 1170 (Harris County) carries the most.
Precinct 1170 (Harris County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 188. It sits at Finnie +24 on our starting line, and 2.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 388 (Harris County) is a turnout race.
Finnie's side leads Precinct 388 (Harris County) by about 36 points on our starting line, and it cast about 599 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 71 votes there.
Precinct 496 (Harris County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 496 (Harris County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Finnie has the cash edge.
As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Finnie had $1.47 million in cash on hand to Toth's $153K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Finnie's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 157
- Slope
- 1.035
- R²
- 0.992
- Residual SD
- 1.9 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 27
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Finnie's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 19.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Finnie, with Toth, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,000 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 19 to 25Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 6,346 of them live where Finnie is favored. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 22.8 points; Cruz carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 18.3 points; Abbott carried the 2022 governor's race by 24.4 points.
- Finnie wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Toth.
- In Precinct 1170 (Harris County) and Precinct 388 (Harris County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 21.0 points toward Finnie's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
1,771 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 33,807 dials to 11,269 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,028 at our published rates: 11,269 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Shaun Finnie (D)
Investment banker focused on energy mergers and acquisitions for about 30 years and a former oil and gas lawyer. A longtime resident of The Woodlands, he holds an economics degree from the University of Saskatchewan, a law degree from Western Ontario and a Northwestern MBA.
Cash on hand $1,469,201 and $2,729,677 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Steve Toth (R)
State representative for House District 15 in The Woodlands area from 2013 to 2015 and again since 2019, a former pastor and owner of the pool businesses Acclaim Pools and My Pool Xpert. He won the March 3 Republican primary with 55.8 percent.
Cash on hand $152,935 and $824,450 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Toth +23.2. Shaun Finnie needs 55,482 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Shaun Finnie win Texas's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 5,177 net votes; the gap is 55,482. The rest would take a 21.0-point national shift.
Where are the votes Shaun Finnie needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 1170 (Harris County), Precinct 388 (Harris County), Precinct 61 (Montgomery County), Precinct 78 (Montgomery County), Precinct 964 (Harris County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Shaun Finnie need to persuade?
About 2,000 voters who lean Steve Toth today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,000 persuadable voters leaning Steve Toth.
When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?
In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Texas Secretary of State, election results
- Texas Legislative Council redistricting (PLANC2333)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Texas's 2nd congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Texas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2026
- Wikipedia: Steve Toth