A long shot on the math: it takes a 32.8-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 1111 (Bexar County)

   Starting line Castro +25. 4.5% split their ticket.
   +41
2. 02
   Precinct 2068 (Bexar County)

   Starting line Castro +15. 3.2% split their ticket.
   +40
3. 03
   Precinct 2020 (Bexar County)

   Starting line Castro +50. 6.0% split their ticket.
   +36
4. 04
   Precinct 4076 (Bexar County)

   Starting line Castro +26. 4.5% split their ticket.
   +34
5. 05
   Precinct 2088 (Bexar County)

   Starting line Castro +25. 3.2% split their ticket.
   +34
6. 06
   Precinct 1110 (Bexar County)

   Starting line Castro +19. 4.7% split their ticket.
   +31

The top 12 precincts carry 11% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  3,038 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Castro today.
  +3,038
• M
  Mobilize

  Few precincts give Baez's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +6
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +434

Plus a national shift of 32.8 points of margin (52,946 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Baez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Castro.
2. It would take a national shift of about 32.8 points toward Baez's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  282 precincts, R² 0.958, 59 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -71,529 to -33,996 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Baez $21,462 cash on hand; Castro $154,380.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  5,086 households, 15,259 dials, about 800 live conversations: an estimated $2,649 at published rates.