What it would have taken for Edgardo Rafael Baez.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Castro starts 34.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 3,478 net votes toward Baez, a 2.2-point gain. Winning outright would take a 32.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Baez the one standing if one comes.
Joaquin Castro won.
Edgardo Rafael Baez finished 20.3 points behind our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies. Source · Second source
A long shot on the math: it takes a 32.8-point national wave.
80,796 votes.
That is half of the 161,591 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Baez stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Railroad Commissioner, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 3,038 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Castro today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Baez needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Castro.
Who. Few precincts give Baez's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 3,478 net votes against a gap of 56,424. Still 52,946 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 32.8 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 11% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+41Precinct 1111 (Bexar County)persuadeStarting line Castro +25. 4.5% split their ticket.
- 02+40Precinct 2068 (Bexar County)persuadeStarting line Castro +15. 3.2% split their ticket.
- 03+36Precinct 2020 (Bexar County)persuadeStarting line Castro +50. 6.0% split their ticket.
- 04+34Precinct 4076 (Bexar County)persuadeStarting line Castro +26. 4.5% split their ticket.
- 05+34Precinct 2088 (Bexar County)persuadeStarting line Castro +25. 3.2% split their ticket.
- 06+31Precinct 1110 (Bexar County)persuadeStarting line Castro +19. 4.7% split their ticket.
- 07+31Precinct 1083 (Bexar County)persuadeStarting line Castro +24. 4.0% split their ticket.
- 08+31Precinct 1100 (Bexar County)persuadeStarting line Castro +25. 4.2% split their ticket.
- 09+30Precinct 2148 (Bexar County)persuadeStarting line Castro +35. 3.5% split their ticket.
- 10+30Precinct 2069 (Bexar County)persuadeStarting line Castro +28. 4.4% split their ticket.
- 11+30Precinct 2025 (Bexar County)persuadeStarting line Castro +41. 4.9% split their ticket.
- 12+29Precinct 4088 (Bexar County)persuadeStarting line Castro +30. 3.0% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 1111 (Bexar County) carries the most.
Precinct 1111 (Bexar County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 41. It sits at Castro +25 on our starting line, and 4.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 2020 (Bexar County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 2020 (Bexar County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 6.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Castro had $154K in cash on hand to Baez's $21K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 3,478 net votes. The gap is 56,424. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.2 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Baez's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 282
- Slope
- 0.979
- R²
- 0.958
- Residual SD
- 2.7 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 59
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Baez's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Baez, with Castro, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,038 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 19 to 25Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The last push goes to every identified supporter who has not voted yet; few drop-off voters live where Baez is favored, so this is a chase, not a turnout drive. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 28.5 points; Allred carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 35.9 points; O'Rourke carried the 2022 governor's race by 40.9 points.
- Baez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Castro.
- It would take a national shift of about 32.8 points toward Baez's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
800 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 15,259 dials to 5,086 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,649 at our published rates: 5,086 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Edgardo Rafael Baez (R)
Attorney and business owner born in Ponce, Puerto Rico, who served in the U.S. Army from 1989 to 2002; holds a bachelor's degree from Wayland Baptist University, a law degree from Texas Southern University and a Ph.D. from Liberty University.
Cash on hand $21,462 and $48,536 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Joaquin Castro (D)
U.S. representative for the 20th District since 2013 who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence; a San Antonio native, attorney and former law professor with degrees from Stanford and Harvard Law School.
Cash on hand $154,380 and $514,776 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Edgardo Rafael Baez lost
Unofficial result: Edgardo Rafael Baez 22.4%, Joaquin Castro 77.6%, a margin of 55.2 points. Our starting line had Castro +34.9; Baez fell short of that line by 20.3 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Castro +34.9. Edgardo Rafael Baez needs 56,424 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Who won TX-20 in 2026?
Joaquin Castro won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Edgardo Rafael Baez 22.4%, Joaquin Castro 77.6%, a margin of 55.2 points. Our starting line had Castro +34.9; Baez fell short of that line by 20.3 points.
Can Edgardo Rafael Baez win Texas's 20th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 3,478 net votes against a gap of 56,424; the rest would take a 32.8-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Edgardo Rafael Baez needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 1111 (Bexar County), Precinct 2068 (Bexar County), Precinct 2020 (Bexar County), Precinct 4076 (Bexar County), Precinct 2088 (Bexar County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Edgardo Rafael Baez need to persuade?
About 1,519 voters who lean Joaquin Castro today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,038 persuadable voters leaning Joaquin Castro.
When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?
In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Texas Secretary of State, election results
- Texas Legislative Council redistricting (PLANC2333)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Texas's 20th congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Texas' 20th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Joaquin Castro
- Ballotpedia: Edgardo Baez