Upset Brief · TX-21 · Kristin Hook (D) vs. Mark Teixeira (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 18.3-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
65,730
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 3149 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Hook +64. 5.6% split their ticket. About 1,100 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +272
  2. 02
    Precinct 142 (Hays County)
    Starting line Hook +61. 5.2% split their ticket. About 851 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +222
  3. 03
    Precinct 115 (Hays County)
    Starting line Hook +36. 2.8% split their ticket. About 1,273 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +171
  4. 04
    Precinct 121 (Hays County)
    Starting line Hook +63. 3.2% split their ticket. About 597 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +153
  5. 05
    Precinct 140 (Hays County)
    Starting line Hook +60. 3.3% split their ticket. About 427 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +120
  6. 06
    Precinct 3195 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Hook +42. 3.7% split their ticket. About 585 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +102

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,505 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Teixeira today.
    +4,505
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 25,047 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hook's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,299
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hook's way.
    +991

Plus a national shift of 18.3 points of margin (57,935 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Hook wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Teixeira.
  2. In Precinct 3149 (Bexar County) and Precinct 142 (Hays County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 18.3 points toward Hook's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    279 precincts, R² 0.998, 61 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -95,523 to -21,081 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Hook $104,069 cash on hand; Teixeira $382,201.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    25,453 households, 76,360 dials, about 4,001 live conversations: an estimated $8,511 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,511 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.