Texas · U.S. House · District 21 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Kristin Hook.

Q: Can Kristin Hook win Texas's 21st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 7,795 net votes; the gap is 65,730. The rest would take a 18.3-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Kristin Hook needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 3149 (Bexar County), Precinct 142 (Hays County), Precinct 115 (Hays County), Precinct 121 (Hays County), Precinct 140 (Hays County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Kristin Hook need to persuade?

About 2,252 voters who lean Mark Teixeira today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,505 persuadable voters leaning Mark Teixeira.

Q: When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?

In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Teixeira starts 20.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 7,795 net votes toward Hook, a 2.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 18.3-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Hook the one standing if one comes.

65,730

net votes between Hook and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

20.8 pts

Teixeira lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Texas races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 18.3-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find65,730

WherePrecinct 3149 (Bexar County), Precinct 142 (Hays County), Precinct 115 (Hays County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Teixeira +20.8. Kristin Hook needs 65,730 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

158,196 votes.

That is half of the 316,390 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Hook stands today, and what is missing:

121,919 Kristin Hook baseline

187,649 Mark Teixeira baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Railroad Commissioner, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Hook wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Hook short by 58,154.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

4,505

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,505

Who. 4,505 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Teixeira today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Hook needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Teixeira.

Mobilize

2,299

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 25,047

Who. At least 25,047 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hook's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

991

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,832

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hook's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 7,795 net votes against a gap of 65,730. Still 57,935 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 18.3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 20% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 3149 (Bexar County)mobilize
Starting line Hook +64. 5.6% split their ticket. About 1,100 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+272
02
Precinct 142 (Hays County)mobilize
Starting line Hook +61. 5.2% split their ticket. About 851 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+222
03
Precinct 115 (Hays County)mobilize
Starting line Hook +36. 2.8% split their ticket. About 1,273 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+171
04
Precinct 121 (Hays County)mobilize
Starting line Hook +63. 3.2% split their ticket. About 597 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+153
05
Precinct 140 (Hays County)mobilize
Starting line Hook +60. 3.3% split their ticket. About 427 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+120
06
Precinct 3195 (Bexar County)mobilize
Starting line Hook +42. 3.7% split their ticket. About 585 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+102
07
Precinct 3058 (Bexar County)mobilize
Starting line Hook +24. 3.8% split their ticket. About 788 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+99
08
Precinct 316 (Hays County)mobilize
Starting line Hook +32. 3.1% split their ticket. About 437 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+93
09
Precinct 3134 (Bexar County)mobilize
Starting line Hook +35. 3.8% split their ticket. About 550 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+92
10
Precinct 3036 (Bexar County)mobilize
Starting line Hook +21. 2.8% split their ticket. About 764 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+87
11
Precinct 3095 (Bexar County)mobilize
Starting line Hook +24. 2.4% split their ticket. About 732 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+79
12
Precinct 2170 (Bexar County)persuade
Starting line Hook +14. 4.0% split their ticket. About 677 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+76

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 3149 (Bexar County) carries the most.

Precinct 3149 (Bexar County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 272. It sits at Hook +64 on our starting line, and 5.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 142 (Hays County) is a turnout race.

Hook's side leads Precinct 142 (Hays County) by about 61 points on our starting line, and it cast about 851 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 175 votes there.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Teixeira had $382K in cash on hand to Hook's $104K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 7,795 net votes. The gap is 65,730. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.5 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Hook's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 279
Slope: 1.035
R²: 0.998
Residual SD: 1.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 61

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Hook's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Hook, with Teixeira, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,505 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 25,047 of them live where Hook is favored. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 21.8 points; Cruz carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 17.6 points; Abbott carried the 2022 governor's race by 20.6 points.

Hook wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Teixeira.
In Precinct 3149 (Bexar County) and Precinct 142 (Hays County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 18.3 points toward Hook's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

4,001 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 76,360 dials to 25,453 households, before the last ballot is cast.

25K

households on the target list

76K

dials across three attempts

4,001

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,511 at our published rates: 25,453 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Kristin Hook (D)

Corpus Christi-born scientist with two degrees from UT Austin and a Ph.D. in animal behavior from Cornell. She is a former Teach for America science teacher, congressional science and engineering fellow and biologist at the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

Cash on hand $104,069 and $243,839 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Mark Teixeira (R)

Former 14-season Major League Baseball first baseman for the Rangers, Braves, Angels and Yankees and a 2009 World Series champion; earned a business administration degree from Georgia Tech, where he won the Dick Howser Trophy as national college player of the year.

Cash on hand $382,201 and $3,922,216 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Teixeira +20.8. Kristin Hook needs 65,730 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Kristin Hook win Texas's 21st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 7,795 net votes; the gap is 65,730. The rest would take a 18.3-point national shift.

Where are the votes Kristin Hook needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 3149 (Bexar County), Precinct 142 (Hays County), Precinct 115 (Hays County), Precinct 121 (Hays County), Precinct 140 (Hays County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Kristin Hook need to persuade?

About 2,252 voters who lean Mark Teixeira today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,505 persuadable voters leaning Mark Teixeira.

When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?

In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.