Upset Brief · TX-26 · Steven Shook (D) vs. Brandon Gill (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.1-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
63,948
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 2094 (Denton County)
    Starting line Shook +18. 3.4% split their ticket. About 1,390 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +119
  2. 02
    Precinct 1047 (Denton County)
    Starting line Shook +15. 2.9% split their ticket. About 1,161 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +100
  3. 03
    Precinct 1048 (Denton County)
    Starting line Shook +16. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,403 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +99
  4. 04
    Precinct 2101 (Denton County)
    Starting line Shook +46. 2.4% split their ticket. About 475 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +98
  5. 05
    Precinct 3127 (Denton County)
    Starting line Shook +38. 3.0% split their ticket. About 534 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +95
  6. 06
    Precinct 3116 (Denton County)
    Starting line Shook +15. 2.9% split their ticket. About 1,176 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +94

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,322 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gill today.
    +4,322
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 13,495 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Shook's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +872
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Shook's way.
    +879

Plus a national shift of 21.1 points of margin (57,876 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Shook wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gill.
  2. In Precinct 2094 (Denton County) and Precinct 2101 (Denton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 21.1 points toward Shook's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    212 precincts, R² 0.998, 41 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -89,514 to -26,119 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Shook $3,807 cash on hand; Gill $1,411,512.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    17,009 households, 51,026 dials, about 2,674 live conversations: an estimated $6,744 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,744 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.