What it would take for Steven Shook.

Voting starts October 19.

1. Now to October 5
   Find them

   Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Shook, with Gill, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.

2. October 6 to 18
   Persuade

   Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,322 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.

3. October 19 to 25
   Bank the ballots

   Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.

4. October 26 to November 2
   Turn them out

   The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 13,495 of them live where Shook is favored. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.

5. November 3
   Election day

   Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

2,674 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 51,026 dials to 17,009 households, before the last ballot is cast.

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.