Tijerina can win. The math closes using 15 percent of what history allows.

1. 01
   Precinct 6 (Starr County)

   Starting line Cuellar +11. 11.8% split their ticket.
   +207
2. 02
   Precinct 130 (Webb County)

   Starting line Cuellar +19. 11.4% split their ticket.
   +197
3. 03
   Precinct 8 (Starr County)

   Starting line Tijerina +6. 11.1% split their ticket.
   +172
4. 04
   Precinct 3 (Zapata County)

   Starting line Tijerina +17. 12.9% split their ticket.
   +120
5. 05
   Precinct 9 (Starr County)

   Starting line even. 12.0% split their ticket.
   +119
6. 06
   Precinct 2 (Zapata County)

   Starting line Tijerina +10. 13.9% split their ticket.
   +118

The top 12 precincts carry 62% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  Ticket splitters and the 15 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 14,687 leaning Cuellar today.
  +2,232
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 9,037 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Tijerina's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +177
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Tijerina's way.
  +88

1. Tijerina wins 8 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Cuellar.
2. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 15 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
3. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  268 precincts, R² 0.956, 55 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -11,447 to 11,785 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Tijerina $768,188 cash on hand; Cuellar $1,129,604.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  3,703 households, 11,109 dials, about 582 live conversations: an estimated $2,113 at published rates.