How Tano E. Tijerina wins.
Cuellar starts 1.7 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Tijerina needs 2,378 net votes, and the math closes using 15 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 6 (Starr County), Precinct 130 (Webb County) and Precinct 8 (Starr County).
Tijerina can win. The math closes using 15 percent of what history allows.
69,578 votes.
That is half of the 139,154 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Tijerina stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: Cuellar +1.7 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
37% today. 51% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. Ticket splitters and the 15 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 14,687 leaning Cuellar today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Tijerina needs to win 8 percent of the ones now leaning Cuellar.
Who. At least 9,037 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Tijerina's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Tijerina's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 2,497 net votes against a gap of 2,378. That is a win.
12 precincts carry 62% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+207Precinct 6 (Starr County)persuadeStarting line Cuellar +11. 11.8% split their ticket.
- 02+197Precinct 130 (Webb County)persuadeStarting line Cuellar +19. 11.4% split their ticket.
- 03+172Precinct 8 (Starr County)persuadeStarting line Tijerina +6. 11.1% split their ticket.
- 04+120Precinct 3 (Zapata County)persuadeStarting line Tijerina +17. 12.9% split their ticket.
- 05+119Precinct 9 (Starr County)persuadeStarting line even. 12.0% split their ticket.
- 06+118Precinct 2 (Zapata County)persuadeStarting line Tijerina +10. 13.9% split their ticket.
- 07+114Precinct 1 (Duval County)persuadeStarting line Cuellar +17. 10.8% split their ticket.
- 08+112Precinct 3 (Starr County)persuadeStarting line Cuellar +1. 13.3% split their ticket.
- 09+103Precinct 1 (Zapata County)persuadeStarting line Tijerina +2. 10.4% split their ticket.
- 10+101Precinct 134 (Webb County)persuadeStarting line Cuellar +16. 12.2% split their ticket.
- 11+99Precinct 4 (Zapata County)persuadeStarting line Cuellar +8. 18.6% split their ticket.
- 12+80Precinct 135 (Webb County)persuadeStarting line Cuellar +17. 11.6% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 6 (Starr County) carries the most.
Precinct 6 (Starr County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 207. It sits at Cuellar +11 on our starting line, and 11.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 4 (Zapata County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 4 (Zapata County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 18.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
The money is close.
As of June 30, 2026, Cuellar had $1.13 million in cash on hand to Tijerina's $768K. A race this close on money is decided on voter contact.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Tijerina's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 268
- Slope
- 1.016
- R²
- 0.956
- Residual SD
- 4.4 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 55
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Tijerina's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 19.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Tijerina, with Cuellar, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 2,232 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 19 to 25Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 9,037 of them live where Tijerina is favored. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 10.4 points; Cruz carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 0.1 points; O'Rourke carried the 2022 governor's race by 10.4 points.
- Tijerina wins 8 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Cuellar.
- No national wave is required. The plan closes at 15 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
- The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
582 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 11,109 dials to 3,703 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,113 at our published rates: 3,703 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Tano E. Tijerina (R)
Webb County judge since 2015, a rancher and a former minor league baseball player drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers, with a bachelor's degree from Texas A&M International University.
Cash on hand $768,188 and $1,280,204 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Henry Cuellar (D)
U.S. representative for the 28th District since 2005 and a member of the House Appropriations Committee; a Laredo native who served 14 years in the Texas House and as Texas secretary of state in 2001, with a Georgetown degree, a UT Austin law degree and a Ph.D. in government.
Cash on hand $1,129,604 and $2,231,952 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Marlón Durán (G)
Community activist and English and Spanish translator from McAllen, nominated at the Green Party convention on March 21, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Cuellar +1.7. Tano E. Tijerina needs 2,375 net votes. Odds 37% today, 51% with the plan.
Questions
Can Tano E. Tijerina win Texas's 28th Congressional District in 2026?
Yes, on the math. Tano E. Tijerina needs 2,378 net votes, and recent Texas results show about 16,431 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 15 percent of that.
Where are the votes Tano E. Tijerina needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 6 (Starr County), Precinct 130 (Webb County), Precinct 8 (Starr County), Precinct 3 (Zapata County), Precinct 9 (Starr County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Tano E. Tijerina need to persuade?
About 1,116 voters who lean Henry Cuellar today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 8 percent of the 14,687 persuadable voters leaning Henry Cuellar.
When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?
In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Texas Secretary of State, election results
- Texas Legislative Council redistricting (PLANC2333)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, Texas Southern University (2026-08-18 to 2026-08-22)
- Poll: Pulse Decision Science (2026-06-21 to 2026-06-23)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Texas's 28th congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2026
- Texas Tribune: Cuellar faces Tijerina in Texas' 28th Congressional District
- Ballotpedia: Henry Cuellar
- Ballotpedia: Tano Tijerina
- Wikipedia: Henry Cuellar